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Why S&P 500's Year-Long Overbought Signal Has This Expert Talking, Plus 3 Stocks To Watch

Why S&P 500's Year-Long Overbought Signal Has This Expert Talking, Plus 3 Stocks To Watch

为什么标准普尔500指数一年来的超买信号让专家谈论,以及三只值得关注的股票
Benzinga ·  10/03 17:16

Retail industry veteran Seth Golden recently warned that, according to a widely used oscillator Williams %R, the S&P 500 has been overbought for an entire year.

零售业老将塞斯·高登最近警告说,根据广泛使用的威廉姆斯%R振荡器,标普500指数已经超买了整整一年。

Golden, a hedge fund consultant who previously worked for household names such as Target and now-defunct Bed Bath & Beyond, pointed out that this is just the 23rd time in history that this has occurred.

曾为Target等知名公司工作并现已倒闭的Bed Bath&Beyond的对冲基金顾问塞斯·高登指出,这在历史上只发生过23次。

Based on historical data he shared in a post on X, he pointed out that when this happened, it continued the same trend for the rest of the year — posting a fourth-quarter median return of 5.29%.

根据他在X上发布的历史数据,他指出当这种情况发生时,接下来的一年都会延续相同的趋势 —— 第四季度的中位数回报率为5.29%。

Williams %R, often dubbed the Williams percent range, is a momentum indicator. It measures the overbought and oversold levels on a scale from 0 to 100. A reading above -20 is overbought and a reading below -80 is oversold.

威廉姆斯%R,常被称为威廉姆斯百分比区间,是一种动量指标。它通过一个0到100的范围来衡量超买和超卖水平。读数高于-20表示超买,读数低于-80表示超卖。

Golden used a 28-month parameter, an industry standard for this indicator.

高登使用了一个28个月的参数,这是该指标的行业标准。

Looking deeper into the list of overbought stocks brings an interesting mix of domestic and foreign catalysts.

深入研究超买股票清单会带来一个有趣的国内外混合动因。

Lockheed Martin's (NYSE:LMT) presence on this list is unsurprising. The leading aerospace and defense manufacturer's stock hit a fresh all-time high, reaching $609 and giving it a market cap of over $144B. The firm benefits from increased defense spending during escalating global conflicts and with a new multi-billion U.S. Navy contract it landed last Thursday. Despite a hefty $19.26B debt, the firm has the balance sheet to easily manage it, plus pay a reliable 2.1% dividend. Its Williams %R overbought score is currently -11.41.

洛克希德马丁(NYSE:LMT)出现在这个名单上并不奇怪。这家领先的航空航天与国防制造商股价创下了新的历史高点,达到609美元,使其市值超过1440亿美元。该公司受益于全球冲突加剧期间增加的国防支出,并通过上周四签订的新的美国海军多十亿美元合同。尽管负债高达192.6亿美元,但公司有资产负债表可以轻松管理,还能支付可靠的2.1%的股利。其威廉姆斯%R超买分数目前为-11.41。

Next on the list is Lowe's Companies Inc (NYSE:LOW), a North Carolina-based retailer specializing in home improvement. It recently hit a new all-time high of $274.16. Along with other home improvement stocks, Lowe experienced a surge following the FED's rate cut. Still, this strong performance is surprising, given the firm's revenue decline of nearly 10% year over year and dimmed future growth projections. Its Williams %R overbought score is currently -5.71.

清单上接下来是总部位于北卡罗来纳州的家居改造专家劳氏公司(NYSE:LOW)。其股价最近创下新的历史高点,为274.16美元。与其他家居改造股一样,劳氏在美联储降息后迎来了一波涨势。尽管其营业收入同比下降近10%,未来增长预期黯淡,但其强劲表现令人惊讶。其威廉姆斯%R超买分数目前为-5.71。

Entergy Corp (NYSE:ETR) has been a utility industry standout, delivering an almost 30% return year-to-date. Despite such numbers, the stock trades at a reasonable P/E ratio of 15.9x, below some of its peers like Exelon or FirstEnergy.

安特吉公司(纽交所:ETR)一直是公用事业行业的佼佼者,全年净收益近30%。尽管这些数字令人印象深刻,该股票的市盈率仅为15.9倍,低于一些同行如爱克斯龙或第一能源。

Entergy provides electric power to the southern U.S. states, benefiting from rapid energy growth in states such as Texas. Investors expect the company to scale with its target market, with a booming population and increased industrial activity prompting higher energy consumption. The stock's Williams %R overbought score currently stands at -7.41.

安特吉公司为美国南部各州提供电力,得益于德克萨斯等州能源迅速增长。投资者预计该公司将随着目标市场扩大规模,随着人口激增和增加的工业活动促使能源消耗增加。该股票的威廉姆斯%R超买分数目前为-7.41。

Photo: Shutterstock

Photo: shutterstock

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