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As Interest Rates Go Down, These 2 TSX Stocks Could Go Up

As Interest Rates Go Down, These 2 TSX Stocks Could Go Up

随着利率期货下降,这2只tsx股票可能会上涨
The Motley Fool ·  10/07 18:05

Interest rate cuts are underway. Since June, the Bank of Canada has reduced its policy rate by 75 basis points, or 0.75%. As a result, financing costs are going down — not only for homeowners, but for businesses as well.

利率降息正在进行中。自6月以来,加拿大银行已将其政策利率降低了75个基点,即0.75%。因此,融资成本正在下降,不仅对房主有利,对企业也是如此。

Many Canadian companies have high levels of debt. The lower interest rates go, the cheaper servicing that debt becomes. For this reason, the ongoing interest rate cuts should have a positive effect on many Canadian companies.

很多加拿大公司负债率较高。利率降低得越多,偿付债务的成本就越便宜。因此,持续的利率削减应该对许多加拿大公司产生积极效果。

Of course, there are other benefits of lower interest rates. A big one is that low interest rates reduce the discount rate used in discounted cash flow calculations, which increases asset values. That's a positive for pretty much all assets, but highly indebted companies respond to lower discount rates even more than the average asset does.

当然,低利率有其他好处。其中一个重要好处是低利率降低贴现现金流计算中使用的折现率,从而增加资产价值。这对几乎所有资产都是积极的,但高负债公司对低折现率的反应比普通资产更强烈。

Which brings us to the topic of utilities. Utilities are some of the most indebted companies in the world, which can be a bad thing when rates are high but usually results in their value increasing quickly when interest rates fall. They are among the best assets to own in economic conditions like the current one.

这就引出了公用事业话题。公用事业公司是世界上负债最严重的公司之一,在利率较高时可能成为负面因素,但通常在利率下降时其价值会迅速增加。在当前这种经济情况下,它们是最好的资产之一。

In this article I will explore two Canadian utility stocks that are worth a good look as interest rates decline.

在本文中,我将探讨两家加拿大公用事业股票,这两家股票在利率下降时值得关注。

Canadian Utilities

加拿大公用事业

Canadian Utilities (TSX:CU) is, as the name implies, a Canadian utility company that supplies power all across the country. It also has operations in Australia, Mexico, Puerto Rico and other foreign jurisdictions.

加拿大公用事业(tsx:cu)就如其名,是一家在全国各地供电的加拿大公用事业公司。它还在澳洲、墨西哥、波多黎各和其他外国司法管辖区开展业务。

As I mentioned earlier, utilities tend to benefit from interest rate cuts because of their high debt levels. Canadian Utilities should benefit from this phenomenon if interest rates keep coming down. As of its most recent reports, the company had $10.725 billion in debt against $7.153 billion in shareholder's equity, for a 1.49 debt/equity ratio. That debt-to-equity ratio is fairly high, but it becomes less of a problem as interest rates decline.

正如我之前提到的,公用事业倾向于从利率削减中受益,因为它们的负债水平较高。如果利率继续下降,加拿大公用事业应该会从这一现象中受益。根据其最新报告,该公司债务107.25亿,股东权益71.53亿,债务/权益比为1.49。这个债务/权益比相当高,但随着利率的下降,这个问题就会减轻。

In the last 12 months, CU's interest expense was $484 million and its net income (profit) was $612 million. If the company's interest expense declines by 13.6% and nothing else changes, then its net income will increase to $678 million. 13.6% is about the level we'd expect interest rates on variable rate debt to fall given the 75 basis point cut (75 is 13.6% of 550, the level we were at before the rate cutting began). So there's a possibility that Canadian utilities' earnings will increase in the year ahead, even if revenue doesn't grow.

在过去的12个月中,CU的利息支出为48400万美元,净收入(利润)为61200万美元。如果公司的利息支出下降了13.6%,而其他方面没有变化,那么其净收入将增加到67800万美元。13.6%大约是我们预期可变利率负债利率下降的水平,相当于75个基点的降息(75是550的13.6%,即我们在降息开始之前的水平)。因此,加拿大公用事业公司的收益有可能在未来一年内增加,即使营业收入没有增长。

Beyond the factors just mentioned, Canadian Utilities has other things going for it, namely a fairly cheap valuation. Trading at 15.5 times earnings, 1.8 times book value and 5 times cash flow, it's one of the cheaper utilities out there.

除了刚提到的因素外,加拿大公用事业还有其他优势,即相当便宜的估值。以15.5倍的市盈率、1.8倍的账面价值和5倍的现金流量交易,是那些更便宜的公用事业之一。

Fortis

fortis

Fortis (TSX:FTS) is another Canadian utility. Like Canadian Utilities, Fortis has a high debt load, with a 1.25 debt/equity ratio. So, FTS should gain from interest rate cuts just like CU.

Fortis(tsx:FTS)是另一家加拿大公用事业公司。和加拿大公用事业一样,Fortis负债较高,负债股本比率为1.25。因此,fts应该像cu一样从利率降低中获益。

On the whole, Fortis is a higher-quality company than Canadian Utilities. It has a lower debt/equity ratio, less interest expense as a percentage of earnings, and a lower dividend payout ratio. Because it's less indebted than CU, it shouldn't respond as swiftly to interest rate cuts as that company should. However, it's overall a better-run company, so it might be worth keeping in mind as a long-term hold.

总的来说,Fortis比加拿大公用事业是一个更高质量的公司。它的负债股本比率更低,利息支出占收入的比例更少,股利支付比率也更低。由于它的负债比cu低,所以对利率下调的反应不应该像那家公司那样迅速。然而,它是一个运营更良好的公司,因此可能值得作为长期持有的考虑。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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