RHB Investment Bank said it is maintaining an overweight call on the construction sector with top picks on Gamuda (GAM), Sunway Construction (SCCG), and Kerjaya Prospek. The house reiterates that the net development expenditure (DE) under Budget 2025 is expected to remain high at c.MYR90bn – this is coupled with a decent chunk of DE allocated for the transport sub-sector, ie highways, ports, and rail projects. Risks may lie in the potential implementation of the multi-tiered foreign worker levy, which
entails higher levies for more foreign workers hired.
A net DE target of MYR395bn was earmarked during the 12th Malaysia Plan's (12MP) (2021-2025) mid-term review in Sep 2023 vs an earlier target of MYR397bn. Also, the Government raised the ceiling for gross DE under the 12MP (initially at MYR400bn) by an additional MYR15bn during the tabling of Budget 2024. Hence, it is reasonable to assume the amount of net
DE (excluding loan recoveries) will increase roughly by the same magnitude of MYR15bn to c.MYR410bn from MYR395bn previously.Assuming the Government commits to the MYR89.2bn net DE for 2024 – the total cumulative net DE from 2021 to 2024 would be c.MYR317.8bn.
Taking into consideration the estimated net DE of MYR410bn from 2021 to 2025 (under 12MP and after the ceiling was raised in Budget 2024), RHB estimate net DE for FY25 at c.MYR92.2bn. We also envisage the allocation of DE to the transportation sub-sector to be c.20-23%, as c.21% of DE was earmarked for said sub-sector under Budget 2024.
Other potential Budget 2025 developments. Firstly, whether a light rail transit (estimated cost: MYR16.7bn) or elevated autonomous rapid transit (EART) system (estimated cost: MYR7bn) is implemented in Johor Bahru. Back in May, the Transport Ministry was expected to complete a study on a proposed EART in Johor Bahru by August – potentially giving room for an
update during Budget 2025. Secondly, the house said it envisage some developments on the Juru-Sungai Dua Elevated Expressway (estimated at MYR1.8bn) in Penang – the Public Private Partnership Unit or UKAS under the Prime Minister's Department and PLUS Malaysia officially started discussions on this project in January to address the persistent traffic woes in Seberang Prai.
Key beneficiaries include GAM, SCCG, and IJM Corp, which have solid track records in government infrastructure projects. Concurrently, Gabungan AQRS and Econpile may emerge as sub-contractors for this project.
The Public-Private Partnership Masterplan 2030 (PIKAS 2030) launched in September signals the Government's intention to expedite infrastructure expansion by leveraging on private sector resources. Key potential projects (which probably never made public headlines) highlighted under PIKAS 2030 include the Kuantan-Singapore Expressway, expansion of the West Coast
Expressway (Banting-Nusajaya), Klang Logistics Corridor, Kuala LumpurKlang Expressway, and Pasir Gudang Expressway among others.
RHB Investment Bank表示,它将维持对建筑业的增持看涨期权,首选的是Gamuda(GAM)、Sunway Construction (SCCG)和Kerjaya Prospek。众议院重申,预计2025年预算下的净开发支出(DE)将保持在900亿马币的高位,再加上分配给交通子行业(即公路、港口和铁路项目)的相当一部分的开发支出。风险可能在于可能实施多级外国工人税,
需要对雇用的更多外国工人征收更高的税收。
在2023年9月的第12次马来西亚计划(1200万令吉)(2021-2025年)中期审查中,DE净目标为3950亿马币,而之前的目标为3,970亿马币。此外,在提交2024年预算案期间,政府将1200万英镑(最初为4000亿马币)以下的DE总额上限再提高了150亿马币。因此,假设净额是合理的
德国(不包括贷款回收额)将从之前的3,950亿马币增加到4,100亿马币,增幅大致相同,达到150亿马币。假设政府承诺在2024年实现892亿马币净额——2021年至2024年的累计净债务总额将为3178亿马币。
考虑到2021年至2025年的净债务净额估计为4,100亿马币(低于1200万令吉,在2024年预算中提高上限之后),卢旺达央行估计25财年的净债务为922亿马币。我们还设想,德国对交通子行业的分配为约0.20-23%,因为根据2024年预算,德国的约21%是专门用于该子行业的。
2025年预算案的其他潜在进展。首先,无论是在柔佛州新山实施轻轨交通(估计成本:167亿马币)还是高架自动快速交通(EART)系统(估计成本:70亿马币)。早在5月,交通部就预计将在8月之前完成对柔佛州新山拟议的eART的研究,这可能会为新山的eART留出空间
2025 年预算期间的更新。其次,众议院表示,计划在槟城的Juru-Sungai Dua高架高速公路(估计为18亿马币)上进行一些开发——总理府下属的公私合作部门或UKAS和PLUS Malaysia于1月份正式开始讨论该项目,以解决Seberang Prai持续的交通问题。
主要受益者包括GaM、SCCG和iJM Corp,它们在政府基础设施项目中有着良好的往绩。同时,Gabungan AQRS和Econpile可能会成为该项目的分包商。
9月份发布的2030年公私伙伴关系总体规划(PIKAS 2030)表明政府打算通过利用私营部门的资源来加快基础设施的扩张。PIKAS 2030中重点介绍的关键潜在项目(可能从未成为公开头条新闻)包括关丹-新加坡高速公路、西海岸扩建项目
高速公路(万丁-努沙再也)、巴生物流走廊、吉隆坡巴生高速公路和巴西古当高速公路等。