Nate Silver: Donald Trump's Election Odds Pump Could Be Noise, But Republicans 'Project Confidence' In Trump Era, Democrats 'Project Anxiety'
Nate Silver: Donald Trump's Election Odds Pump Could Be Noise, But Republicans 'Project Confidence' In Trump Era, Democrats 'Project Anxiety'
Silver explains that the movement in prediction markets can be driven by circular thinking and social media influence. He states, "Someone (say Elon Musk) tweets about Trump gaining ground at Polymarket. On a slow news day, that becomes news, and people just let their imaginations run wild."The sudden spike in Donald Trump's chances on Polymarket to win the presidential election has prompted speculation beyond the cryptocurrency community, with some suggesting parallels to Elon Musk's involvement in Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE).
唐纳德·特朗普在Polymarket上赢得总统大选的机会突然激增，这引发了加密货币社区以外的猜测，有人认为这与埃隆·马斯克参与狗狗币（加密货币：DOGE）有相似之处。
What Happened: Nate Silver, renowned statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, offered insights into the recent surge on Polymarket, where Trump's chances have risen to 52.6%, compared to Kamala Harris's 46.7%.
发生了什么：著名统计学家兼FiveThirtyEight创始人内特·西尔弗对最近保利市场的飙升提供了见解，特朗普的几率已上升至52.6％，而卡马拉·哈里斯的概率为46.7％。
Silver attributes this shift to what he calls the "doldrums" of the presidential campaign, a period of relative calm between major events. He notes, "Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own, and that can especially happen when traders are bored and angsty because they're in the doldrums."
西尔弗将这种转变归因于他所谓的总统竞选的 “低迷”，即两次重大事件之间的相对平静时期。他指出：“有时候 市场情绪 有自己的想法，当交易者因为处于低迷状态而感到无聊和焦虑时，尤其会发生这种情况。”
Silver explains that the movement in prediction markets can be driven by circular thinking and social media influence. He states, "Someone (say Elon Musk) tweets about Trump gaining ground at Polymarket. On a slow news day, that becomes news, and people just let their imaginations run wild."
西尔弗解释说，预测市场的走势可以由循环思维和社交媒体的影响力驱动。他说：“有人（比如埃隆·马斯克）在推特上说特朗普在Polymarket取得进展。在缓慢的新闻日里，这变成了新闻，人们只是让自己的想象力疯狂起来。”
Also Read: This Polymarket Trader Holds $6.4 Million In Donald Trump Election Bets—'If Not Musk, Definitely Someone Similar,' Says Veteran Trader
另请阅读：这位Polymarket交易员在唐纳德·特朗普大选中持有640万美元的赌注——资深交易员说：“如果不是马斯克，肯定是相似的人”
Silver highlights the asymmetries in trading behaviour, observing that "In the Trump era, Republicans tend to project confidence, while Democrats tend to project anxiety." He also notes that Polymarket's crypto-adjacent user base has become more Trump-leaning recently.
白银强调了交易行为的不对称性，并指出 “在特朗普时代，共和党人倾向于表现出信心，而民主党人则倾向于表现出焦虑。”他还指出，Polymarket的加密相关用户群最近变得更加倾向于特朗普。
While acknowledging the possibility of deliberate market manipulation, Silver believes it's less likely now due to increased market liquidity. He concludes by emphasizing that prediction markets at least impose a cost for being wrong, unlike social media platforms.
在承认蓄意操纵市场的可能性的同时，西尔弗认为，由于市场流动性的增加，现在这种可能性较小。他最后强调，与社交媒体平台不同，预测市场至少会为出错付出代价。
Other observers, such as heavily followed X user Swann Marcus drew parallels to the Elon Musk-prompted Dogecoin price pump in 2021, suggesting the Tesla CEO may be drawing traders' attention to Trump-related bets.
其他观察家，例如备受关注的X用户斯旺·马库斯，将埃隆·马斯克在2021年引发的狗狗币价格上涨相提并论，这表明特斯拉首席执行官可能正在提请交易者注意与特朗普相关的赌注。
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图片：Shutterstock