The Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300519) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 57%. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 12% is also fairly reasonable.

After such a large jump in price, Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 53.1x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 33x and even P/E's below 20x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Is There Enough Growth For Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 41%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 53% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 37% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Shares in Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.