Is PetroChina (HKG:857) A Risky Investment?
Is PetroChina (HKG:857) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, PetroChina Company Limited (HKG:857) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
由伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格背书的外部基金经理李录明确表示:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动性,而是你是否会遭受到资本的永久损失。” 因此,当您考虑任何特定股票的风险性时,可能很明显您需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务可能会拖垮一家公司。 重要的是,中国石油有限公司(HKG:857)确实存在债务。 但这些债务会不会让股东担心呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
债务是帮助企业成长的工具,但是如果企业不能偿还贷款,那么它存在于贷款人的掌握之中。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以控制公司。尽管这种情况不太常见,但我们经常看到因为贷款人迫使企业以低于市场价格的价格筹集资本而导致负债累累的企业永久性地稀释股东权益。当然,债务的好处在于,它通常代表着廉价的资本,尤其是当它代替那些能以高回报率再投资的公司而发生稀释时。当我们考虑到债务水平时,我们首先要考虑现金和债务水平。
What Is PetroChina's Debt?
中国石油的债务情况是什么?
As you can see below, PetroChina had CN¥213.8b of debt at June 2024, down from CN¥302.5b a year prior. But it also has CN¥258.8b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥45.0b net cash.
正如下文所示,截至2024年6月,中国石油的债务为2138亿人民币,低于前一年的3025亿人民币。 但它也有2588亿人民币的现金来抵消,意味着净现金为450亿人民币。
How Healthy Is PetroChina's Balance Sheet?
中石化的资产负债表有多健康?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that PetroChina had liabilities of CN¥716.6b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥373.5b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥258.8b as well as receivables valued at CN¥90.1b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥741.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
详细查看最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到中石化有7166亿人民币的短期内到期的负债,以及3735亿人民币的长期负债。 抵消这些义务的是,它有2588亿人民币的现金,以及901亿人民币的短期应收账款。 因此,其负债总计7412亿人民币,超过了其现金和短期应收账款的总和。
This deficit isn't so bad because PetroChina is worth a massive CN¥1.49t, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, PetroChina boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
这个赤字并不糟糕,因为中石化价值巨大,达到了1.49万亿人民币,因此如果有需要,可能会筹集足够的资本来巩固其资产负债表。 但我们绝对要注意是否有迹象表明其债务带来了太多风险。 尽管其负债可观,中石化拥有净现金,因此可以说其负债并不重。
The good news is that PetroChina has increased its EBIT by 2.7% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if PetroChina can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
好消息是,中石化在过去十二个月里的EBIt增长了2.7%,这应该能缓解有关偿还债务的担忧。 毫无疑问,我们大部分关于债务的了解来自资产负债表。 但最终,业务未来的盈利能力将决定中石化是否能够随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。 因此,如果您想知道专业人士的看法,您可能会发现分析师盈利预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While PetroChina has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, PetroChina produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 71% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
最后,虽然税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但借款人只接受冰冷的现金流。 尽管中石化在资产负债表上拥有净现金,但仍值得关注其将EBIT转化为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解其构建(或侵蚀)现金余额的速度。 在过去三年中,中石化产生了坚实的自由现金流,相当于EBIt的71%,符合我们的预期。 这笔冰冷的现金意味着它可以在需要时减少债务。
Summing Up
总之
Although PetroChina's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥45.0b. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥162b, being 71% of its EBIT. So we don't have any problem with PetroChina's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that PetroChina is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
尽管中国石油的资产负债表并不特别强大,由于总负债,但明显可以看到其有450亿人民币的净现金。并且以1620亿人民币的自由现金流给我们留下了深刻印象,占其EBIt的71%。因此,我们对中国石油使用债务没有任何问题。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表之内 - 远非如此。请注意,在我们的投资分析中,中国石油出现了两个警示信号,其中之一不容忽视...
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。
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