Trump Vs. Harris: 2024 Election Swing State Poll 'Too Close To Call,' But This Candidate Leads
Trump Vs. Harris: 2024 Election Swing State Poll 'Too Close To Call,' But This Candidate Leads
Election polls continue to show a close race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in key swing states with less than one month to go until the 2024 presidential election.
选举民调继续显示，在2024年总统大选前不到一个月的时间里，特朗普概念和副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯之间在关键摇摆州之间的竞争激烈。
What Happened: While Harris posted a lead in most 2024 election polls of national voters, swing state polls have been much closer.
发生了什么：尽管哈里斯在大多数2024年全国选民的选举民调中领先，但摇摆州的民调却更为接近。
A new Emerson College poll of voters in seven key swing states shows a close race between the two candidates with Trump having the edge.
一项Emerson学院针对七个关键摇摆州选民的新民调显示两位候选人之间的竞争激烈，特朗普稍微领先。
Here are the results, and the totals from the previous poll in parentheses:
以下是结果，以及前一次民调的总数（括号中）：
Arizona: Trump 49% (49%), Harris 47% (48%)
Georgia: Trump 49% (50%), Harris 48% (47%)
Michigan: Trump 49% (47%), Harris 49% (49%)
Nevada: Harris 48% (48%), Trump 47% (48%)
North Carolina: Trump 49% (48%), Harris 48% (49%)
Pennsylvania: Trump 49% (48%), Harris 48% (47%)
Wisconsin: Trump 49% (49%), Harris 49% (48%)
亚利桑那州：特朗普49%（49%），哈里斯47%（48%）
乔治亚州：特朗普49%（50%），哈里斯48%（47%）
密歇根州：特朗普49%（47%），哈里斯49%（49%）
内华达州：哈里斯48%（48%），特朗普47%（48%）
北卡罗来纳州：特朗普 49% （48%），哈里斯 48% （49%）
宾夕法尼亚州：特朗普 49% （48%），哈里斯 48% （47%）
威斯康星州：特朗普 49% （49%），哈里斯 49% （48%）
The polls show Trump leading in four of the seven states, Harris leading in one state and the two candidates tied in two states. The last Emerson College poll of the seven states had Trump leading in four states with Harris leading in two states. The August poll had each candidate leading three states.
投票显示，特朗普领先七个州中的四个州，哈里斯领先一州，两位候选人在两个州中并列。最后一次埃默森学院对这七个州的调查显示，特朗普在四个州领先，哈里斯在两个州领先。八月的调查显示，每位候选人各领先三个州。
In the latest poll, Trump gained support in three states, lost support in two states and saw the same support in two states. Harris gained support in three states, lost support in two states and saw the same support in two states.
在最新的调查中，特朗普在三个州获得了支持，失去了两个州的支持，在两个州中保持不变。哈里斯在三个州获得了支持，在两个州失去了支持，在两个州中保持不变。
"With just under four weeks to go, the race remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error," Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.
“离选举仅剩不到四周的时间，关键摇摆州的竞争仍未定论，各州的竞争都在误差范围之内”，埃默森学院民调执行董事斯宾塞·金博尔表示。
Why It's Important: The seven swing states in question together represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven states above were won by Biden in the 2020 election with Trump winning North Carolina. Several of the states were flipped from Trump's win in the 2016 election.
有关七个摇摆州的重要性：这七个摇摆州在2024年选举中共计代表93张选举票。在2020年选举中，拜登赢得了上述七个州中的六个，特朗普赢得了北卡罗来纳州。其中几个州在2016年选举中从特朗普赢得一位被翻转。
Harris has seen the number of swing states she led in or tied with Trump in decline in recent months, which could be bad news for the vice president.
哈里斯近几个月来看到她在领先或与特朗普并驾齐驱的摇摆州数量在下降，这对副总统可能是个坏消息。
With swing states playing a pivotal role in who wins the election, Harris will need to see support build in the election homestretch for election forecasters to give her a good chance to win the election.
振荡州在选举中起着至关重要的作用，哈里斯需要在选举竞争尾声时看到支持助推，才能使选举预测者认为她有很大机会赢得选举。
Election polls aren't perfect and the fact the poll results are within its margin of error points to an incredibly close election too close to call.
选举民调并非完美，民调结果落在误差范围内表明选举非常激烈，难以预测结果。
