Elevated CPO Pricing May Not Be Sustainable
Elevated CPO Pricing May Not Be Sustainable
CPO prices have surprised many in the market, remaining strong due to tight supply conditions, especially in Indonesia. However, with expectations of increased production in Indonesia, there is concern that the current pricing The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported a significant increase in crude palm oil (CPO) stockpiles, hitting an eight-month high of 2.01 million tonnes (mt) by the end of September 2024. This rise is attributed to a sharp decline in domestic consumption, which saw a staggering 37% month-on-month drop to just 0.15mt. The report suggests that Malaysia's CPO production may have peaked in August, prompting analysts to closely monitor Indonesia's output, expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. A strong recovery in Indonesia's CPO production could lead to downward pressure on CPO prices, which currently trade at an unsustainable premium compared to other vegetable oils.
马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）报告称，原油棕榈油（CPO）库存显著增加，于2024年9月底达到了201万吨，创八个月来的新高。这一增长归因于国内消费急剧下降，同比下降了惊人的37%，仅为0.15万吨。报告指出，马来西亚的CPO产量可能在8月份达到峰值，分析师们预计印尼的产量将在2024年第四季度达到峰值，并密切关注其走势。印尼CPO产量的强劲复苏可能会对CPO价格造成下行压力，目前CPO价格较其他植物油交易价格处于不可持续的溢价状态。
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd has maintained a NEUTRAL stance on the sector, with BUY recommendations for SD Guthrie (SDG), Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP), Ta Ann (TAH), and Bumitama Agri (BAL).
Maybank投资银行Bhd维持了对该板块的中立立场，对SD Guthrie（SDG）、沙捞越油棕（SOP）、长益（TAH）和布米达马农业（BAL）提出了买入建议。
The MPOB's figures surpassed market expectations, with September's stockpile exceeding the anticipated 1.95mt. The increase was driven by a combination of high output, recorded at 1.82mt, and a decrease in domestic consumption, alongside a modest rise in exports, which reached 1.54mt. Imports fell sharply to a mere 0.005mt as high domestic CPO prices in Indonesia deterred Malaysian refiners. Preliminary export estimates for October indicate a promising start, with independent cargo surveyors reporting shipments of approximately 490,582 tonnes, representing a 19% month-on-month increase.
MPOB的数据超出了市场预期，9月的库存超过了预期的1.95万吨。这一增长是由高产量（记录为1.82万吨）和国内消费的下降、出口的小幅增长驱动的，出口量达到1.54万吨。进口量急剧下降至仅0.005万吨，因印尼高国内CPO价格遏制了马来西亚炼油商的热情。10月初的初步出口估计表明了一个有希望的开始，独立货物检验员报告了大约490,582吨的货物，较上月增长了19%。
CPO prices have surprised many in the market, remaining strong due to tight supply conditions, especially in Indonesia. However, with expectations of increased production in Indonesia, there is concern that the current pricing trends may not be sustainable. Notably, CPO is trading at a premium over other oils such as soyoils and sunflower oils, which may lead to reduced competitiveness in the market. RHB Investment Bank Bhd has reiterated a NEUTRAL outlook for the sector, while identifying Johor Plantations Group (JPG), Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP), SD Guthrie (SDG), and London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP) as new top picks.
CPO价格让市场许多人感到惊讶，由于供应短缺，尤其在印尼。然而，随着预计的印尼产量增加，人们担心目前的定价趋势可能不具可持续性。值得注意的是，CPO与其他油品（如豆油和葵花籽油）相比，价格处于溢价状态，可能导致市场竞争力降低。RHb投资银行有限公司重申了对该行业的中立前景，同时将柔佛种植团体（JPG）、沙捞越油棕（SOP）、SD Guthrie（SDG）和伦敦巽他印尼（LSIP）确定为新的首选股。
Weather disruptions have also played a role in shaping the market landscape, with wet weather reported across key producing regions, impacting harvesting and transportation. The forecast of continued La Niña conditions raises concerns about further disruptions, which could influence both supply levels and pricing dynamics. As a result, MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd has also maintained a NEUTRAL stance, projecting average CPO prices of RM4,000 per tonne, while highlighting the importance of weather patterns in shaping future price movements. The report emphasises the potential for continued elevated CPO prices, albeit coupled with a warning of demand rationing as CPO becomes less attractive compared to other oils.
天气干扰也在塑造市场格局中发挥作用，关键产区出现湿润天气，影响收获和运输。继续出现“拉尼娜”现象的预测引发了对进一步干扰的担忧，这可能影响供应水平和价格动态。因此，马来西亚国际金融有限公司信托投资银行也保持中立立场，预测棕榈油平均价格为每吨4,000令吉，同时强调天气模式在塑造未来价格走势方面的重要性。报告强调了持续高企的棕榈油价格潜力，尽管警告称，随着棕榈油与其他油脂相比不再那么具吸引力，需求可能会受限。
The stocks mentioned in the reports are:
报告中提到的股票有：
Buy Recommendations
买入建议
| Company Name | Ticker | Current Price (RM) | Target Price (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD Guthrie | SDG | 4.64 | 5.20 |
| Swk Oil Palms | SOP | 3.19 | 4.10 |
| Ta Ann | TAH | 4.03 | 4.03 |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL | 0.745 | 0.78 |
| IOI Corp | – | 3.74 | 4.50 |
| Johor Plantations Group | – | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Kuala Lumpur Kepong | – | 25.40 | 25.40 |
| PP London Sumatra Indonesia | – | 1,130 IDR | 1,130 IDR |
| Sarawak Oil Palms | – | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| SD Guthrie | – | 5.35 | 5.35 |
| 公司名称 | 逐笔明细 | 当前价格 (RM) | 目标价 (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD Guthrie | SDG | 4.64 | 5.20 |
| Swk Oil Palms | SOP | 3.19 | 4.10 |
| 长益 | TSH | 4.03 | 4.03 |
| 布米达马农业 | 板块 | 0.745 | 0.78 |
| IOI Corp | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 3.74 | 4.50 |
| 柔佛种植集团 | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| 吉隆坡肯宏 | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 25.40 | 25.40 |
| PP伦敦苏门答腊印尼 | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 1,130 印尼盾 | 1,130 印尼盾 |
| 砂劳越油棕 | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| SD Guthrie | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 5.35%（2022年12月31日为4.41%） | 5.35%（2022年12月31日为4.41%） |
Neutral Recommendations
中立建议
| Company Name | Ticker | Current Price (RM) | Target Price (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astra Agro Lestari | – | 5,460 IDR | 5,460 IDR |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL | 0.70 SGD | 0.70 SGD |
| FGV Holdings | – | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| First Resources | – | 1.45 SGD | 1.45 SGD |
| Golden Agri | – | 0.25 SGD | 0.25 SGD |
| Ta Ann | TAH | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| TSH Resources | – | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Wilmar International | – | 3.10 SGD | 3.10 SGD |
| 公司名称 | 逐笔明细 | 当前价格 (RM) | 目标价 (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astra Agro Lestari | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 5,460 印尼盾 | 5,460 印尼盾 |
| 布米达马农业 | 板块 | 0.70 新加坡元 | 0.70 新加坡元 |
| FGV 控股 | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| 益资源 | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 1.45 新加坡元 | 1.45 新加坡元 |
| 金光农业 | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 0.25 新加坡元 | 0.25 新加坡元 |
| 长益 | TSH | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| 盈申控股资源 | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Wilmar国际 | 2024年6月30日终止的会计分析 | 3.10 新加坡元 | 3.10 新加坡元 |
