Jihua Group (SHSE:601718 Investor Five-year Losses Grow to 17% as the Stock Sheds CN¥483m This Past Week
Jihua Group (SHSE:601718 Investor Five-year Losses Grow to 17% as the Stock Sheds CN¥483m This Past Week
Jihua Group Corporation Limited (SHSE:601718) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 19% in the last month. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. In fact, the share price is down 19%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
际华集团有限公司(SHSE:601718)的股东应该很高兴看到股价在过去一个月上涨了19%。但在过去的半个十年里,股票表现不佳。事实上,股价下跌了19%,远远低于您通过买入指数基金可以获得的回报。
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
考虑到过去一周对股东来说是艰难的,让我们调查一下基本面并看看我们能学到什么。
While Jihua Group made a small profit, in the last year, we think that the market is probably more focussed on the top line growth at the moment. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.
尽管际华集团在过去一年取得了小额利润,但我们认为市场目前可能更关注的是顶线增长。一般来说,我们会将这样的股票与亏损的公司放在一起考虑,仅仅是因为利润量非常低。对股东来说,要相信一家公司将大幅增加利润,它必须增长营业收入。
Over half a decade Jihua Group reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 12% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. On the face of it we'd posit the share price fall of 4% compound, over five years is well justified by the fundamental deterioration. We doubt many shareholders are delighted with this share price performance. It is possible for businesses to bounce back but as Buffett says, 'turnarounds seldom turn'.
在半个十年的时间里,际华集团每年将其过去十二个月的营业收入减少了12%。这使得它处于一个不太吸引人的群体中,委婉地说。从表面上看,我们认为股价在五年内以4%的复合方式下跌,这种基本恶化是完全合理的。我们怀疑许多股东会对这种股价表现感到高兴。企业有可能实现复苏,但正如巴菲特所说,“扭亏很少会扭转”。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下图像显示了公司的营业收入和盈利(随时间变化)(单击以查看准确的数字)。
We know that Jihua Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? Take a more thorough look at Jihua Group's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
我们知道际华集团在过去三年中改善了其底线,但未来会有什么变化呢?通过查看此免费报告,更全面地了解际华集团的财务健康状况。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Jihua Group's TSR for the last 5 years was -17%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
对于任何一支股票,考虑总股东回报以及股价回报至关重要。 TSR是一个回报计算,考虑到现金分红的价值(假设任何获得的分红都被再投资),以及任何折扣资本筹集和股权分拆的计算价值。 因此,对于支付丰厚分红的公司,TSR往往比股价回报高得多。 正如情况所发生的那样,际华集团过去5年的TSR为-17%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。 而无法猜测到的是,分红支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧!
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
Jihua Group shareholders are down 3.3% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 2.1%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 3% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Jihua Group (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.
际华集团股东今年下跌了3.3%(包括分红),但市场本身上涨了2.1%。 即使优质股票的股价有时也会下跌,但我们希望在对一家企业的基本度量指标见到改善之前,不要过于感兴趣。 然而,过去一年的亏损并不像投资者在过去半个十年中所遭受的每年3%的亏损那样糟糕。 在我们能够充满热情之前,我们需要看到关键度量指标的持续改善。 虽然考虑市场状况可能对股价产生的不同影响是非常值得的,但有其他更重要的因素。 比如风险。 每家公司都有风险,我们已发现际华集团存在2个警示信号(其中有1个让我们感到不太舒服!)您应该知道。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
如果您喜欢与管理层一起购买股票,那么您可能会喜欢这个公司的免费列表。 (提示:其中许多公司不为人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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