Is Oriental Pearl GroupLtd (SHSE:600637) A Risky Investment?
Is Oriental Pearl GroupLtd (SHSE:600637) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Oriental Pearl Group Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600637) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
一些人认为,投资者思考风险的最佳方式是考虑波动性而不是债务,但沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过,“波动性与风险远非同义词”。因此,显而易见的是,在考虑任何特定股票有多大风险时,您需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务可能会拖垮一家公司。正如许多其他公司一样,东方明珠股份有限公司(SHSE:600637)利用了债务。但更重要的问题是:这些债务到底产生了多少风险?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
负债是帮助企业增长的一种工具,但如果企业无力偿还其债权人,那么它的存在就取决于债权人。 最糟糕的情况是,如果一家公司无法偿还其债权人,它将破产。 然而,一种更常见(但仍然痛苦的)情况是,它必须以低价筹集新的股本,从而永久稀释股东的权益。 当然,负债的好处是它通常代表廉价的资本,特别是当它取代具有高回报率再投资能力的公司的稀释时。 在考虑一家公司的债务水平时,第一步是考虑其现金和债务的总和。
What Is Oriental Pearl GroupLtd's Debt?
东方明珠股份有限公司的债务是什么?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Oriental Pearl GroupLtd had debt of CN¥2.78b, up from CN¥2.31b in one year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥17.0b in cash, leading to a CN¥14.2b net cash position.
下面的图片显示,在2024年6月,东方明珠股份有限公司的债务为27.8亿人民币,比一年前的23.1亿人民币有所增加。但另一方面,它还有170亿人民币的现金,导致净现金为142亿人民币。
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How Strong Is Oriental Pearl GroupLtd's Balance Sheet?
东方明珠集团有限公司的资产负债表有多坚实?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Oriental Pearl GroupLtd had liabilities of CN¥8.45b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.66b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥17.0b as well as receivables valued at CN¥2.90b due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥9.80b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
我们可以从最近的资产负债表看到,东方明珠集团有限公司有84.5亿人民币的一年内到期负债,以及166亿人民币的一年后到期负债。 抵消这些义务,它持有170亿人民币的现金,以及价值29亿人民币的应收款项,12个月内到期。 因此,它实际上比总负债多有98亿人民币的流动资产。
This surplus strongly suggests that Oriental Pearl GroupLtd has a rock-solid balance sheet (and the debt is of no concern whatsoever). Having regard to this fact, we think its balance sheet is as strong as an ox. Simply put, the fact that Oriental Pearl GroupLtd has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
这种剩余资产强烈表明东方明珠集团有限公司拥有坚实的资产负债表(债务完全不成问题)。鉴于这一事实,我们认为其资产负债表和黄牛一样强壮。 简而言之,东方明珠集团有限公司拥有比债务更多现金的事实,可以说是它能够安全管理债务的一个良好指标。
Better yet, Oriental Pearl GroupLtd grew its EBIT by 291% last year, which is an impressive improvement. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Oriental Pearl GroupLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
更好的是,东方明珠集团有限公司去年其税息前利润率(EBIT)增长了291%,这是一个令人印象深刻的进步。 这一增长将使其更容易偿还未来的债务。 当您分析债务时,资产负债表显然是重点关注的领域。 但更重要的是未来的收入,这将决定东方明珠集团有限公司今后能否维持健康的资产负债表。 所以,如果您想知道专业人士的看法,您可能会对分析师利润预测的这份免费报告感兴趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. Oriental Pearl GroupLtd may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. In the last two years, Oriental Pearl GroupLtd's free cash flow amounted to 37% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
但我们最终的考虑也很重要,因为一家公司无法用纸面利润支付债务;它需要冷硬的现金。 东方明珠集团有限公司的资产负债表上可能有净现金,但仔细看一下企业将其税息前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力,将影响其管理债务的需求和能力。 在过去的两年中,东方明珠集团有限公司的自由现金流量相当于其税息前利润的37%,低于我们的预期。 这种疲弱的现金转化使其更难处理债务。
Summing Up
总之
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Oriental Pearl GroupLtd has CN¥14.2b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 291% over the last year. So is Oriental Pearl GroupLtd's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Oriental Pearl GroupLtd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...
虽然调查公司的债务是明智的,但在这种情况下,东方明珠集团有142亿人民币的净现金和一个看起来不错的资产负债表。过去一年,其EBIt增长了291%令我们印象深刻。那么,东方明珠集团的债务是否存在风险?在我们看来似乎并不是。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中最多了解到债务情况。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表之外的风险。请注意,我们的投资分析显示,东方明珠集团有2个警示信号,其中1个有点令人担忧...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。
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