Mixed Views on MAS Policy for 1H25 as Singapore Faces Inflation and Growth Risks
Mixed Views on MAS Policy for 1H25 as Singapore Faces Inflation and Growth Risks
Additionally, RHB expects headline and core inflation pressures at 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively, suggesting g little impetus for monetary policy to move anytime soon.In Q3, the economy grew faster at 4.1% YoY.
第三季度，经济同比增长4.1%。
Economists are mixed about whether the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will adjust its policy settings in the first half of 2025.
经济学家对新加坡货币管理局（MAS）是否会在2025年上半年调整其政策设定看法不一。
According to RHB, MAS will likely keep its policy parameters unchanged at least into 1H25, adding that current S$NEER policy parameters are appropriate for maintaining Singapore's price pressures.
据RHb称，MAS可能会保持其政策参数在1H25年内不变，同时表示当前的S$NEER政策参数适用于维持新加坡的价格压力。
Additionally, RHB expects headline and core inflation pressures at 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively, suggesting g little impetus for monetary policy to move anytime soon.
此外，RHb预计头条和核心通胀压力分别为2.3%和1.8%，暗示货币政策短时间内不太可能有动力进行调整。
RHB, however, warned of three risks: geopolitical tensions that could cause unexpected supply chain disruptions, the potential rise in developed market protectionist policies that could limit free trade, and risks from China, especially if recent policies fail to stop the decline in property prices, which could impact Singapore's growth outlook in 2025.
然而，RHb警告存在三大风险：地缘政治紧张局势可能导致意想不到的供应链中断，发达市场的保护主义政策潜在上升可能限制自由贸易，以及中国可能面临的风险，尤其是如果最近的政策未能制止房地产价格下跌，这可能影响新加坡2025年的增长前景。
Despite these risks, RHB said MAS will have little need to tweak its policy parameters into 1H25 if its base case assumptions play out.
尽管存在这些风险，RHb表示如果其基本案例假设得以实现，MAS在1H25年内将无需调整其政策参数。
UOB, however, said MAS might need to slightly reduce the S$NEER slope by 50 basis points in its January or April 2025 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), citing persistent demand-side inflation risks due to strengthening economic activity and the possible closing or even turning positive of the output gap in the second half of 2024.
然而，大华银行表示MAS可能需要在2025年1月或4月的货币政策声明（MPS）中略微降低S$NEER斜率50个基点，原因是由于经济活动的增强和可能在2024年下半年关闭甚至扭转出口缺口，需对持续的需求方通胀风险加以警惕。
Based on advance estimates, Singapore's economy grew faster at 4.1% YoY in Q3.
根据初步估计，新加坡经济第三季度同比增长4.1%。
"We see this as a step towards restoring monetary policy neutrality, aligning with trend growth and year-on-year core inflation returning to around 1.8%, where the neutral path of the S$NEER is consistent with a moderate rate of appreciation," UOB explained.
"我们将其视为恢复货币政策中立的一步，与趋势增长和年度核心通胀率回归至约1.8%保持一致，S$NEER的中性路径与适度升值率一致，"大华银行解释道。
After that, UOB does not expect any further adjustments to the S$NEER slope for the rest of 2025.
之后，大华银行不预期在2025年余下的时间内对S$NEER的斜率作进一步调整。
