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Is Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd (SHSE:600639) A Risky Investment?

Is Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd (SHSE:600639) A Risky Investment?

上海金桥出口加工区发展有限公司(SHSE:600639)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  10/16 14:11

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600639) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过:“波动性与风险远非同义词。” 当您考察一家公司的风险时,考虑其资产负债表是理所当然的,因为企业破产时通常涉及到债务。我们可以看到,金桥b股(SHSE:600639)的确在业务中使用了债务。但这些债务会不会让股东感到担忧呢?

When Is Debt A Problem?

什么时候负债才是一个问题?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果一个企业无力偿还其债权人,则存在于他们的恩惠之下。如果情况变得非常糟糕,债权人可以接管企业。然而,更频繁发生的(但仍然昂贵)情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东的利益,来支撑其资产负债表。然而,通过替代稀释,债务可以成为需要高回报投资增长资本的企业的极好工具。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,首要任务是审视其现金和债务总额。

What Is Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd's Net Debt?

金桥b股净债务是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd had debt of CN¥19.2b, up from CN¥14.0b in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥5.43b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥13.8b.

下面的图片(点击可查看更详细信息)显示,2024年6月,金桥b股的债务为192亿元人民币,比一年前的140亿元人民币有所增加。另一方面,其拥有54.3亿元人民币的现金,净债务约为138亿元人民币。

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SHSE:600639 Debt to Equity History October 16th 2024
SHSE:600639 债务与股本历史:2024年10月16日

How Healthy Is Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd's Balance Sheet?

上海金桥b股的资产负债表有多健康?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd had liabilities of CN¥14.6b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥12.9b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥5.43b as well as receivables valued at CN¥234.7m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥21.8b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根据上次披露的资产负债表显示,上海金桥b股有146亿人民币的短期负债,以及129亿人民币的长期负债。 抵消这些负债,它有54.3亿人民币的现金和23470万人民币的应收账款,其中12个月内到期。 因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收款项总计218亿人民币。

This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥11.1b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

这个赤字给这家规模111亿人民币的公司蒙上了一层阴影,就像一个巨人屹立于凡人之上。 所以我们会密切留意它的资产负债表,毫无疑问。归根结底,如果其债权人要求偿还,上海金桥b股可能需要进行重大资本重组。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

为了比较一个公司的债务与其收益的关系,我们计算其净债务除以利息、税、折旧和摊销前的收益和利息前的收益(其利息覆盖率)。因此,我们考虑了债务的绝对数量以及支付的利率。

Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.1 which suggests a meaningful debt load. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 2.9 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Even worse, Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd saw its EBIT tank 61% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

上海金桥b股的债务与EBITDA比率相当高,达到8.1,这表明负债较重。 但好消息是,它拥有相当令人安心的利息覆盖倍数为2.9倍,表明它可以负责地履行义务。 更糟糕的是,上海金桥b股在过去12个月里,利润(EBIt)下降了61%。 如果利润继续沿着那个轨迹下降,偿还债务将会比说服我们在雨中参加马拉松更加困难。 在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是一个明显的起点。 但不能孤立地查看债务;因为上海金桥b股需要利润来偿还债务。 因此,在考虑债务时,肯定值得关注盈利趋势。 点击此处获取互动快照。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最终,一家公司只能用现金来偿还债务,而不是会计利润。因此,我们始终关注有多少EBIt被转化为自由现金流。在过去三年里,上海金桥b股大量消耗现金。尽管投资者无疑期待这种情况很快会出现逆转,但这显然意味着其债务使用更加危险。

Our View

我们的观点

On the face of it, Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And furthermore, its net debt to EBITDA also fails to instill confidence. Considering everything we've mentioned above, it's fair to say that Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd is carrying heavy debt load. If you play with fire you risk getting burnt, so we'd probably give this stock a wide berth. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone DevelopmentLtd you should be aware of, and 2 of them are significant.

乍一看,上海金桥b股的EBIt增长速度让我们对该股持保留态度,其总负债水平并不比年度最繁忙的夜晚上唯一一家空无一人的餐厅来的诱人。此外,其净债务与EBITDA的比率也没有增强信心。考虑到我们提到的一切,可以说上海金桥b股承担着沉重的债务负担。玩火自焚,所以我们可能会远离这只股票。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解最多有关债务的信息。然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。举一个例子:我们发现了上海金桥b股3个警示信号,您应该注意,其中有2个很重要。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果您是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,立即发现我们独家的净现金增长股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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