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We Think Fujian Kuncai Material Technology (SHSE:603826) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Fujian Kuncai Material Technology (SHSE:603826) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我们认为坤彩科技(SHSE:603826)在债务方面存在一些风险
Simply Wall St ·  10/19 17:41

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603826) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

霍华德·马克斯说得很好,他表示,与其担心股价波动,'我担心的是永久性损失的可能性...我认识的每个实际投资者都会担心这一点。' 当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢看它的债务使用情况,因为债务过多可能导致毁灭。 我们注意到,福建坤彩科技材料有限公司(SHSE:603826)的资产负债表上确实有债务。 但这笔债务是否会引起股东的担忧呢?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

债务带来了什么风险?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

一般来说,当一家公司不能轻松偿还债务时,债务问题才会成为真正的问题,无论是通过筹资还是通过自己的现金流。在最糟糕的情况下,如果一家公司无法支付债权人,公司可能会破产。然而,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东权益,以控制债务。当然,债务的好处在于,它通常代表了廉价资本,尤其是当它取代了公司能够以高回报率再投资的稀释时。考虑一家公司的债务水平时的第一步是将其现金和债务合并考虑。

How Much Debt Does Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Carry?

福建坤彩科技材料的负债情况如何?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Fujian Kuncai Material Technology had CN¥1.87b of debt, up from CN¥1.76b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥128.3m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥1.74b.

正如您所看到的,截至2024年6月底,福建坤彩材料科技的债务为18.7亿人民币,比一年前的17.6亿人民币有所增加。 点击图片查看更多详细信息。 另一方面,它有12830万人民币的现金,导致净债务约为17.4亿人民币。

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SHSE:603826 Debt to Equity History October 20th 2024
SHSE:603826资产负债历史数据 2024年10月20日

How Healthy Is Fujian Kuncai Material Technology's Balance Sheet?

福建坤彩材料科技的资产负债表情况如何?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Fujian Kuncai Material Technology had liabilities of CN¥2.04b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥776.2m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥128.3m and CN¥339.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥2.35b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

最新的资产负债表数据显示,福建坤彩材料科技一年内到期的负债为20.4亿人民币,之后到期的负债为77620万人民币。另一方面,其一年内应收款项为12830万人民币,应收款项总计33960万人民币。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收款项的总和高出23.5亿人民币。

Given Fujian Kuncai Material Technology has a market capitalization of CN¥18.3b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

考虑到福建坤彩材料科技的市值为183亿人民币,很难相信这些负债会构成很大威胁。话虽如此,很明显我们应继续监测其资产负债表,以防情况变得更糟。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

为了对公司的债务相对于其收益进行规模适应,我们计算其净债务与利息、税、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)之比及其税前收益(EBIT)与利息支出之比(利息保障倍数)。因此,我们既考虑到不包括折旧和摊销费用在内的收益,又包括折旧和摊销费用的收益相对于债务。

With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.9, it's fair to say Fujian Kuncai Material Technology does have a significant amount of debt. However, its interest coverage of 2.5 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. The good news is that Fujian Kuncai Material Technology grew its EBIT a smooth 67% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Fujian Kuncai Material Technology can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

净债务与息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)比率为5.9,可以说福建坤彩材料科技确实有相当数量的债务。然而,其利息赚取倍数为2.5,相当强,这是一个好迹象。好消息是,过去十二个月,福建坤彩材料科技的EBIT增长平稳,增长率达到67%。像这样的增长增加了企业的韧性,使其更能够管理债务。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中获取了很多关于债务的信息。但最终企业未来的盈利能力将决定福建坤彩材料科技是否能够随着时间推进增强其资产负债表。因此,如果您关注未来,您可以查看这份展示分析师盈利预测的免费报告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Fujian Kuncai Material Technology saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

但我们最终的考虑也很重要,因为企业无法用纸面利润支付债务;它需要真金白银。因此,我们显然需要观察EBIT是否带来相应的自由现金流。在过去三年里,福建坤彩材料科技出现了相当大的负自由现金流总和。虽然投资者们无疑希望这种情况会在适当时倒转,但这显然意味着其债务使用更加风险。

Our View

我们的观点

Neither Fujian Kuncai Material Technology's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. We think that Fujian Kuncai Material Technology's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Fujian Kuncai Material Technology you should be aware of.

福建坤彩材料科技将EBIT转换为自由现金流的能力,以及其净债务与EBITDA的比率,并没有给我们带来对其承担更多债务能力的信心。 但好消息是,它似乎能够轻松增长其EBIT。 我们认为福建坤彩材料科技的债务在考虑了前述数据点后,确实使其有些风险。这并不一定是件坏事,因为杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但这是需要注意的事项。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解最多关于债务。 然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表内 - 远非如此。 以此为例:我们发现了福建坤彩材料科技的1个警示信号,您应该注意。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。

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