These 4 Measures Indicate That Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (SHSE:600320) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (SHSE:600320) Is Using Debt Extensively
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600320) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
David Iben说得很好,'波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免资本的永久损失。'因此,聪明的资金了解到,债务——通常与破产有关——是评估公司风险程度时很重要的因素。我们可以看到,振华b股(SHSE:600320)的业务确实使用了债务。但这种债务是否会让股东担忧?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
当企业无法轻松用自由现金流或以合理价格筹集资金来履行这些义务时,债务和其他负债就变得有风险了。最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能一无所有。然而,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以低价发行股份,永久稀释股东,以稳固其资产负债表。当然,债务的好处是它通常代表了廉价的资本,特别是当它取代了一家公司的稀释能力,以高回报率进行再投资。当我们考虑一家公司对债务的利用时,我们首先看现金和债务的总体情况。
How Much Debt Does Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Carry?
振华b股承担了多少债务?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries had CN¥28.1b of debt in June 2024, down from CN¥31.7b, one year before. However, it also had CN¥6.26b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥21.9b.
你可以点击下面的图表查看历史数据,但显示振华b股在2024年6月有281亿人民币的债务,比一年前的317亿人民币有所下降。然而,它还拥有62.6亿人民币的现金,因此净债务为219亿人民币。
How Strong Is Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries' Balance Sheet?
振华b股资产负债表有多强?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries had liabilities of CN¥42.9b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥22.6b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥6.26b as well as receivables valued at CN¥12.5b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥46.7b.
根据最新公布的资产负债表显示,振华b股的短期负债为429亿元人民币,在12个月内到期,而超过12个月的负债为226亿元人民币。 抵消这些义务,它手头现金为62.6亿元人民币,以及价值125亿元人民币的应收账款在12个月内到期。 因此,其负债比其现金和(短期)应收账款总和超过467亿元人民币。
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥16.2b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
这里的赤字让162亿元人民币的公司自身承担重压,就像一个孩子 struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet。所以我们会密切关注其资产负债表,毫无疑问。毕竟,如果振华b股今天必须偿还债务,那很可能需要进行重大再资本化。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了对公司的债务相对于其收益进行规模适应,我们计算其净债务与利息、税、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)之比及其税前收益(EBIT)与利息支出之比(利息保障倍数)。因此,我们既考虑到不包括折旧和摊销费用在内的收益,又包括折旧和摊销费用的收益相对于债务。
Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (8.9), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.5 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. More concerning, Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries saw its EBIT drop by 5.8% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues the company will face an uphill battle to pay off its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
振华b股股东面临高净债务与EBITDA比率(8.9)及相当薄弱的利息覆盖率的双重打击,因为EBIt仅为利息支出的2.5倍。 这里的债务负担是相当重的。更令人担忧的是,振华b股在过去12个月中EBIt下降了5.8%。如果这种盈利趋势持续下去,公司将面临偿还债务的艰难任务。 毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到大部分关于债务的信息。但最终业务未来的盈利能力将决定振华b股是否能随着时间加强其资产负债表。 因此,如果您想了解专业人士的看法,您可能会发现分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
最后,虽然税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冰冷的现金。因此,我们始终检查有多少EBIt被转化为自由现金流。在过去三年中,振华b股实际上生产的自由现金流比EBIt更多。这种强劲的现金转化让我们像在Daft Punk音乐会上的人群听到节拍时那样兴奋。
Our View
我们的观点
To be frank both Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.
坦率地说,振华b股的净债务与EBITDA的比率及其对总负债保持控制的历史记录使我们对其债务水平感到相当不舒服。但光明面是,其将EBIt转化为自由现金流的能力是一个好迹象,让我们更加乐观。总体而言,我们认为振华b股的资产负债表对业务构成了真正的风险。因此,我们对这只股票几乎像饥饿的小猫对待掉入主人的鱼塘一样谨慎:三次受伤,两次怕,正如人们所说的那样。资产负债表显然是在分析债务时关注的重点领域。然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中——远非如此。例如,我们已经发现振华b股有3个警告信号(其中1个让我们感到不舒服),您应该注意。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。
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