Dollar Hits 2-Month High Amid Fed Rate Speculation
Dollar Hits 2-Month High Amid Fed Rate Speculation
The US dollar remained at a 2-1/2 month high on Tuesday, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will approach interest rate cuts cautiously. This strength in the dollar, further reinforced by rising Treasury yields, continued to put pressure on the yen, euro, and sterling. This trend has been gaining momentum in recent weeks as traders pull back on expectations of rapid US rate cuts.
美元周二保持在2个半月高位,受市场预期美联储将谨慎采取利率降息的支持。美元的强势得到了不断上涨的国债收益率的进一步支撑,继续对日元、欧元和英镑施加压力。随着交易员减少对美国快速降息预期的举措近几周来,这一趋势一直在蓄势待发。
Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo, commented, "The US exceptionalism story remaining intact and what Fed speakers are hinting at are gradual rate cuts from here. This, together with the betting odds of a Trump 2.0 picking up, has brought another leg of gains for the U.S. dollar."
Saxo的首席投资策略师Charu Chanana评论道:“美国特殊性的故事保持完整,以及美联储发言人所示意的逐步降息在这里。与特朗普连任的博彩赔率一起,这为美元带来了另一个上升阶段。”
The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six others, stood at 103.87, having reached 104.02 on Monday, its highest level since Aug 1. So far this month, the index has risen by over 3%.
美元指数,跟踪美元兑其他六种货币的汇率,站在103.87,周一达到104.02,为8月1日以来的最高水平。截至本月,该指数已上涨超过3%。
The upcoming Beige Book, due to be released on Wednesday, is seen as a potential risk for the dollar, according to some analysts. The previous report on economic conditions was viewed as a key trigger for the 50 basis point rate cut in September, which marked the start of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle.
根据一些分析师的看法,即将发布的贝葛书(Beige Book)可能对美元构成潜在风险。之前有关经济形势的报告被视为9月份50个基点降息的关键触发因素,标志着美联储放松周期的开始。
Four Federal Reserve policymakers expressed their support for further rate cuts on Monday, though they appeared divided on the pace and extent of the cuts. Currently, markets are pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month, compared to a 50% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
尽管周一有四名美联储政策制定者表示支持进一步降息,但他们在降息的速度和幅度上似乎存在分歧。目前,市场价格反映了下个月25个基点降息的概率为87%,而一个月前更大的50个基点降息的概率为50%,根据cme FedWatch工具显示。
Traders are now expecting an additional 40 basis points of easing by the end of the year.
交易员目前预计今年年底降息将额外降低40个基点。
The euro was last seen at US$1.0827, close to its lowest point since 2 August, while sterling stood at US$1.3006, near its lowest since 20 August. Thursday's eurozone PMI data could put further pressure on the single currency if it highlights the region's poor economic performance, bolstering the likelihood of European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts.
欧元最近报价为1.0827美元,接近8月2日以来的最低点,而英镑报价为1.3006美元,接近8月20日以来的最低点。如果周四的欧元区采购经理人指数数据凸显了该地区经济表现不佳,那么将进一步增加对欧洲央行(ECB)降息可能性的压力。
Francesco Pesole, Forex Strategist at ING, remarked, "The key question is: are the hawks fine with Lagarde's sanguine disinflation view, a gradual shift in focus to growth and such a dovish market pricing?" He added that persistent inflation in the euro zone services sector may mean the answer is no.
荷兰国际集团外汇策略师Francesco Pesole表示:“关键问题是:鹰派是否接受拉加德乐观的通货紧缩观点,逐渐将焦点转向增长以及如此鸽派的市场定价?”他补充说,欧元区服务行业持续的通货膨胀可能意味着否定的回答。
With the US election just two weeks away, the rising odds of a Donald Trump victory are also boosting the dollar. His policies on tariffs and taxes are seen as potentially keeping US interest rates elevated. However, the race remains tight, and analysts expect market volatility in the lead-up to the election results. Antti Ilvonen, Forex Analyst at Danske Bank, noted, "Even small changes in tight polls could drive seemingly erratic swings in market sentiment."
距离美国大选仅剩两周,特朗普概念胜选的可能性日益增加,也推升了美元。他在关税和税收方面的政策被视为有可能使美国利率保持较高水平。然而,选情依然激烈,分析师们预计在选举结果公布前市场波动性会增加。Danske银行外汇分析师安特伊·伊尔沃宁指出,“在紧张的民调中,即使是微小的变化也可能引发看似不稳定的波动。 市场情绪."
Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.22%, its highest since July 26, which kept the yen under pressure. The Japanese yen was relatively unchanged at 150.82 per dollar, after hitting a near three-month low of 151.10.
与此同时,美国10年期国债收益率上升至4.22%,为7月26日以来最高,这使日币承压。日币兑美元相对稳定,每美元150.82日币,之前触及近三个月的低点151.10后未有大变化。
Takeshi Kato, Executive Director of the Bank of Japan, highlighted concerns about rising import prices due to the weakening yen. Japan is set to hold a general election on Oct 27, and despite varying opinion polls, markets are optimistic that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito will maintain their positions.
日本银行董事加藤武,对因日币贬值而导致进口价格上涨的担忧进行了强调。日本将于10月27日举行大选,尽管民意调查结果不一,市场仍然乐观认为执政的自民党和其联盟伙伴公明党将维持其地位。
Reuters
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