We Think That There Are More Issues For Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech (SHSE:688372) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
We Think That There Are More Issues For Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech (SHSE:688372) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
After announcing weak earnings, Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech. Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:688372) stock was strong. While shares were up, we believe there are some factors in the earnings report that might cause investors some concerns.
宣布业绩疲软后,上海V-Test半导体科技股份有限公司(SHSE:688372)的股票表现强势。虽然股价上涨,但我们认为业绩报告中存在一些因素可能会引起投资者的一些担忧。
Examining Cashflow Against Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's Earnings
通过对上海V-Test半导体科技业绩的现金流分析
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
正如财务控制狂所知,从现金流中的应计比率是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与其利润匹配程度的关键指标。应计比率从给定期间的FCF中减去利润,并将结果除以公司在该时间内的平均经营资产。该比率告诉我们公司利润中有多少不受自由现金流支持。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,负的应计比率对公司是积极的,而正的应计比率则是消极的。这并不意味着我们应该担心正的应计比率,但值得注意的是应计比率相当高的地方。这是因为一些学术研究表明,高应计比率往往导致较低的利润或利润增长。
Over the twelve months to September 2024, Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech recorded an accrual ratio of 0.31. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥90.4m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥892m in the last year. We also note that Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥892m. Having said that it seems that a recent tax benefit and some unusual items have impacted its profit (and this its accrual ratio).
在截至2024年9月的十二个月内,上海V-Test半导体科技的应计比率为0.31。不幸的是,这意味着其自由现金流远低于其法定利润,这使我们对利润作为指导的效用产生了怀疑。尽管它报告了人民币9040万的利润,但从自由现金流情况来看,实际上在过去一年里它支出了人民币89200万。我们还注意到,上海V-Test半导体科技去年的自由现金流实际上也是负数,所以我们可以理解股东对其支出89200万人民币的流出感到不安。话虽如此,似乎最近的税收收益和一些飞凡项目影响了其利润(以及其应计比率)。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀释之外,还应该注意的是,万集科技在过去12个月中因不寻常项目获得了价值人民币3.5万元的利润。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当这些不寻常项目对利润做出重大贡献时,我们会更加谨慎。我们对全球大部分上市公司的数据进行了分析,发现不寻常项目往往是一次性的。这正如我们所期望的那样,因为这些提升被描述为"不寻常"。相对于其利润而言,万集科技在2021年12月前的不寻常项目贡献大。因此,我们可以推断出,这些不寻常项目正在使其财务利润显著增强。
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥14m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. If Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
公司在去年出现飞凡项目,为利润增加了约1400万元,这可能部分解释了其应计比率如此疲弱的原因。虽然我们喜欢看到利润增加,但当飞凡项目做出重大贡献时,我们往往会更加谨慎。当我们分析全球大多数上市公司时,我们发现重要的飞凡项目往往不会重复出现。这并不奇怪,鉴于名称。如果上海V-Test半导体技术公司没有看到这种贡献再现,那么其他条件相同的情况下,我们预计其利润在当前年度会下降。
An Unusual Tax Situation
一种不寻常的税务情况
Moving on from the accrual ratio, we note that Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech profited from a tax benefit which contributed CN¥7.9m to profit. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! Of course, prima facie it's great to receive a tax benefit. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal.
继续从应计比率方面提及,我们注意到上海V-Test半导体技术公司因税收优惠而获得了790万元的利润。这当然有点不寻常,因为公司更常见的情况是缴纳税款而不是获得税收优惠!当然,从表面上看,获得税收优惠是很好的。然而,我们的数据显示,税收优惠可能会在计入当年利润时暂时提升法定利润,但随后利润可能会回落。假设税收优惠不会每年重复,我们可能会看到其盈利能力明显下降,其他条件相同的情况下。
Our Take On Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's Profit Performance
我们对上海V-Test半导体技术公司的利润表现看法
Summing up, Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's tax benefit and unusual items boosted its statutory profit leading to poor cash conversion, as reflected by its accrual ratio. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. If you'd like to know more about Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. To help with this, we've discovered 4 warning signs (2 are concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech.
总结一下,上海V-Test半导体技术公司的税收优惠和飞凡项目提升了其法定利润,导致现金转化不佳,正如其应计比率所反映的那样。基于上述原因,我们认为草率地查看上海V-Test半导体技术公司的法定利润可能会使其看起来比实际情况好一些。如果您想了解更多关于上海V-Test半导体技术公司作为一家业务的信息,重要的是要意识到它面临的任何风险。为了帮助您了解,我们发现了4个警示信号(2个令人担忧!)在购买上海V-Test半导体技术公司的任何股票之前,您应该注意。
Our examination of Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我们对上海V-Test半导体科技的检查已经集中在一些因素上,这些因素可以使其盈利看起来比实际情况更好。基于此,我们对此持有一些怀疑。但如果您能够将注意力集中在细枝末节上,就总会有更多的发现。例如,许多人认为高股本回报率是有利的商业经济指标,而其他人则喜欢'追踪资金'并寻找内部人员正在购买的股票。虽然这可能需要您进行一些研究,但您可能会发现这个免费的高股本回报率公司收藏集,或者这个具有重要内部持股的股票清单对您有用。
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