Cheer Holding, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHR) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump in the last month. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 10% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, Cheer Holding may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x, since almost half of all companies in the Interactive Media and Services industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 1.2x and even P/S higher than 4x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.

How Has Cheer Holding Performed Recently?

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Cheer Holding's revenue has been unimpressive. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think this benign revenue growth rate will likely underperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For Cheer Holding?

Cheer Holding's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 6.2% overall from three years ago. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 13% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we understand why Cheer Holding's P/S is lower than most of its industry peers. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent revenue trends are already weighing down the shares.

The Final Word

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Cheer Holding's P/S close to the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Cheer Holding confirms that the company's shrinking revenue over the past medium-term is a key factor in its low price-to-sales ratio, given the industry is projected to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Having said that, be aware Cheer Holding is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those can't be ignored.

If you're unsure about the strength of Cheer Holding's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.