Shareholders might have noticed that Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.1% to US$93.32 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$1.2b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.1% to hit US$1.47 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Selective Insurance Group after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Selective Insurance Group from five analysts is for revenues of US$5.38b in 2025. If met, it would imply a notable 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 113% to US$7.97. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.92 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$99.86, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Selective Insurance Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$106 and the most bearish at US$95.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Selective Insurance Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.2% annually. So although Selective Insurance Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Selective Insurance Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Selective Insurance Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.