As every investor would know, not every swing hits the sweet spot. But really bad investments should be rare. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of Alector, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALEC) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 78%. That would be a disturbing experience. Furthermore, it's down 28% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

Because Alector made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

In the last three years Alector saw its revenue shrink by 25% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. The swift share price decline at an annual compound rate of 21%, reflects this weak fundamental performance. Never forget that loss making companies with falling revenue can and do cause losses for everyday investors. There is a good reason that investors often describe buying a sharply falling stock price as 'trying to catch a falling knife'. Think about it.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

Alector is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

A Different Perspective

Alector shareholders are down 8.8% for the year, but the market itself is up 40%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 12% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Alector that you should be aware of.

But note: Alector may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.