HSBC 2024 Outlook: Reaffirms NII Guidance Of Around $43B And RoTE In The Mid-Teens; Expects To Maintain the CET1 Capital Ratio Within 14% To 14.5%
HSBC 2024 Outlook: Reaffirms NII Guidance Of Around $43B And RoTE In The Mid-Teens; Expects To Maintain the CET1 Capital Ratio Within 14% To 14.5%
Outlook –
Our guidance remains unchanged from that set out at our Interim results on 31 July 2024.
– We continue to target a mid-teens return on average tangible equity ('RoTE') in 2024 and 2025, excluding the impact of notable items, while acknowledging the outlook for interest rates has changed, and been volatile, since our 1H24 results announcement in July.
– Our banking NII guidance of around $43bn for 2024 remains unchanged and we continue to target cost growth of approximately 5% for 2024 compared with 2023, on a target basis. ECL charges as a percentage of average gross loans in 2024 are expected to be within our medium-term planning range of 30bps to 40bps (including customer lending balances transferred to held for sale).
– Our guidance reflects our current outlook for the global macroeconomic environment, including customer and financial markets activity. This includes our modelling of a number of market-dependent factors, such as market-implied interest rates (as of mid-October 2024), as well as customer behaviour and activity levels.
– We intend to manage our CET1 capital ratio within our medium-term target range of 14% to 14.5%, with a dividend payout ratio target basis of 50% for 2024, which excludes material notable items and related impacts.
–We continue to make progress on reshaping the Group. We expect to complete the sale of our business in Argentina in 4Q24. On completion, cumulative foreign currency translation reserves and other reserves will recycle to the income statement. These impacts have already been recognised in capital. At 30 September 2024, foreign currency translation reserve and other reserve losses stood at $5.1bn
展望 -
我们的指引不变,与2024年7月31日中期业绩报告中设定的一致。
- 我们继续以2024年和2025年的平均实体股东权益中部青少年回报率('RoTE')为目标,不包括重大事项的影响,同时承认自7月份我们的1H24业绩公告以来,利率前景已经发生变化,并且波动较大。
- 我们对2024年银行净利息收入的指导仍然保持在约430亿美元左右,我们继续以2024年的成本增长目标为比较基准,预计较2023年增长约5%,以目标为基础。2024年ECL费用占平均总贷款的比例预计将在我们中期规划的30个基点到40个基点的范围内(包括转移到待售账户的客户贷款余额)。
- 我们的指引反映了我们对全球宏观经济环境的当前展望,包括客户和金融市场活动。这包括我们对许多依赖于市场的因素进行建模,如市场隐含利率(截至2024年10月中旬),以及客户行为和活动水平。
- 我们打算将我们的 CET1资本比率管理在我们的14%至14.5%的中期目标范围内,2024年的股利支付比率目标基础为50%,不包括重大的重要事项和相关影响。
- 我们继续推进集团的重塑工作。我们预计将在2024年第四季度完成出售我们在阿根廷的业务。完成后,累积的外币翻译准储和其他准备金将转入损益表。这些影响已在资本中得到确认。截至2024年9月30日,外币翻译准备金和其他准备金损失达到51亿美元。