Check Point's Slowing Growth Despite New Products Prompts Analyst Downgrade
Check Point's Slowing Growth Despite New Products Prompts Analyst Downgrade
Given the company's modest growth trajectory, the valuation seems stretched, as per Liani.B of A Securities analyst Tal Liani downgraded Check Point Software Technologies Ltd (NASDAQ:CHKP) from Buy to Neutral and lowered the price target from $205 to $195.
B of A证券分析师Tal Liani将check point软件技术有限公司 (纳斯达克: CHKP) 的评级从买入调降至中立，并将目标价从205美元降至195美元。
On Tuesday, Check Point reported fiscal third-quarter revenue growth of 7% to $635.10 million, almost inline with the analyst consensus estimate of $635.14 million. Adjusted operating margin declined to 43% from 45% the prior year.
上周二，check point报告财务第三季度营业收入增长7%，达到63510万美元，几乎与分析师一致预期的63514万美元持平。调整后的营业利润率从去年的45%下降至43%。
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Given the company's modest growth trajectory, the valuation seems stretched, as per Liani.
鉴于该公司的温和增长轨迹，据Liani表示，估值似乎有些高估。
The analyst expected a recovery in billings next quarter despite the quarter's weak billings growth of 5.8% year-over-year, which fell short of the Street's 8.2% expectation.
分析师预期下一季度的开账将有所恢复，尽管上一季度的开账增长同比仅为5.8%，远低于市场预期的8.2%。
However, his main concern is the overall low growth trajectory despite new products, portfolio additions, and ongoing go-to-market challenges.
然而，他的主要关注点是尽管有新产品、组合增加和持续的市场挑战，整体增长轨迹仍然较低。
The market seeks visibility toward double-digit growth, but Liani's analysis indicates this is likely for 2025 with a substantial surge in appliance revenue.
市场寻求获得向双位数增长的可见性，但Liani的分析显示，这可能发生在2025年，伴随家用电器营收的大幅增长。
The analyst noted limited further upside, with the stock up 37% over the last 12 months and trading at 15 times forward EV/FCF with mid-single-digit growth.
分析师指出股价在过去12个月上涨了37%，正以15倍前EV/FCF的价格交易，预期中单位数增长有限的未来增长。
He adjusted our estimates and lowered his price target, now based on 16 times the 2026E EV/FCF multiple, down from 18 times for 2025.
他调整了我们的估算，并将目标价下调，现在基于2026E EV/FCF的16倍倍数，下调至2025年的18倍。
Infinity now contributes 15% of total revenue, supporting some long-term growth resilience, Liani said.
无限现在占总营业收入的15%，支持一些长期增长的韧性，Liani说。
Management noted weakness in Europe but expected billings recovery in the fourth quarter, projecting 7.1% growth. Despite substantial investment in product updates, such as the Harmony, Infinity, and Quantum lines, and go-to-market efforts, overall growth remains limited to mid-single digits, the analyst flagged.
管理层指出欧洲业务疲软，但预计第四季度将出现开多情况，预计增长7.1%。尽管在产品更新，如Harmony、Infinity和Quantum系列，以及市场推广方面进行了大量投资，但整体增长仍然受限于中等个位数，该分析师指出。
This modest trajectory constrains stock upside until the outlook improves, as per Liani.
直到前景改善，这种温和的轨迹将限制股票的上涨空间，根据Liani的说法。
Checkpoint's revenue splits into product, subscription, and maintenance. In 2025, the analyst expects maintenance revenue to accelerate from ~2% to 3.5% year-over-year, thanks to Infinity-related professional services.
Checkpoint的营业收入分为产品、订阅和维护。分析师预计，在2025年，由于与Infinity相关的专业服务，维护收入将从大约2%加速至3.5%同比增长。
Subscription revenue slowed to 11.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, under the Street's 13.0%, while product revenue rebounded 4.1% after last year's declines.
订阅收入在第三季度同比增速放缓至11.5%，低于街头的13.0%，而产品收入在去年下降后反弹了4.1%。
To achieve 10% total revenue growth in 2025, product revenue would need to jump from 4% to 20%, which appears infeasible in the current competitive landscape, as per Liani. He instead modeled 1.6% product growth and 5.6% total revenue growth for 2025.
为了实现2025年10%的总营业收入增长，产品收入需要从4%跃升至20%，在当前激烈竞争的市场格局下似乎是不可行的，根据Liani的说法，他取而代之地对2025年进行了1.6%的产品增长和5.6%的总营业收入增长建模。
Price Action: CHKP stock closed down by 2.24% to $173.89 on Wednesday.
价格走势：周三，CHKP股票收盘下跌2.24%，报173.89美元。
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