The quarterly results for Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HRMY) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$186m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Harmony Biosciences Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.79 per share, a notable 19% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Harmony Biosciences Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$839.4m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a major 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 47% to US$3.17. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$838.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.26 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$47.11, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Harmony Biosciences Holdings analyst has a price target of US$59.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$28.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Harmony Biosciences Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 41% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$47.11, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Harmony Biosciences Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Harmony Biosciences Holdings that you should be aware of.

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