We Think That There Are More Issues For Hangjin Technology (SZSE:000818) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
We Think That There Are More Issues For Hangjin Technology (SZSE:000818) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
The market rallied behind Hangjin Technology Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:000818) stock, leading do a rise in the share price after its recent weak earnings report. While shareholders may be willing to overlook soft profit numbers, we believe that they should also be taking into account some other factors which may be cause for concern.
市场在航锦科技股份有限公司(SZSE:000818)的股票后市场表现强劲,导致近期财报疲弱后股价上涨。虽然股东们可能愿意忽视低迷的利润数字,但我们认为他们也应该考虑到一些其他可能引起担忧的因素。
Zooming In On Hangjin Technology's Earnings
聚焦航锦科技的盈利情况
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
正如金融迷们已经知道的那样,从现金流量计算的应计比率是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与其利润相匹配程度的重要指标。应计比率将给定期间的FCF从利润中减去,并将结果除以公司在该期间的平均经营资产。该比率显示公司利润超过其FCF的程度。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,当一个公司应记比率为负数时,实际上这被视为一件好事,而如果该比率为正数则被视为一件坏事。这并不意味着我们应该担心正的应记比率,但值得注意的是,当应计比率相当高时,引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年的一篇论文"高应计的公司未来的盈利能力较差"。
Hangjin Technology has an accrual ratio of 0.41 for the year to September 2024. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥76.7m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥1.8b in the last year. We saw that FCF was CN¥229m a year ago though, so Hangjin Technology has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. The good news for shareholders is that Hangjin Technology's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
航锦科技2024年9月的计提比率为0.41。一般来说,这对未来的盈利前景不利。事实上,公司在那段时间内没有产生任何自由现金流。尽管它报告了7670万人民币的利润,但从自由现金流看,它实际上在过去一年里烧掉了18亿人民币。虽然一年前FCF为22900万人民币,所以航锦科技至少在过去能够产生积极的FCF。对股东们的好消息是,航锦科技的计提比率去年要好得多,因此今年的低读数可能只是利润与FCF之间短期不匹配的情况。如果确实是这种情况,股东们应该寻找当前年度现金流相对利润的改善。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Hangjin Technology.
注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的强度。点击这里查看我们对航锦科技资产负债表分析。
Our Take On Hangjin Technology's Profit Performance
我们对航锦科技的盈利表现持什么看法
As we discussed above, we think Hangjin Technology's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Hangjin Technology's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. In further bad news, its earnings per share decreased in the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. If you'd like to know more about Hangjin Technology as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Our analysis shows 4 warning signs for Hangjin Technology (3 are a bit concerning!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.
正如我们上面讨论的,我们认为航锦科技的收益并不得到自由现金流的支持,这可能会引起一些投资者的担忧。因此,我们认为航锦科技的基本盈利能力可能低于其法定利润。更糟糕的是,其每股收益在过去一年中有所下降。最终,若想正确了解公司,必须考虑除上述因素之外的更多因素。若想了解航锦科技作为一家企业的更多信息,了解其面临的任何风险是很重要的。我们的分析显示航锦科技存在4个警示信号(其中3个有点令人关注!),我们强烈建议您在投资前查看这些。
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Hangjin Technology's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
这则说明只关注了揭示航锦科技利润性质的单个因素。但如果您能专注于细枝末节,总有更多发现。例如,许多人认为高净资产回报率是良好商业经济的指标,而其他人则喜欢‘跟着钱走’,寻找公司内部人员正在买入的股票。因此,您可能希望查看这些具有高净资产回报率的公司的免费收藏,或查看这些具有高内部所有权的股票清单。
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