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Is Viva Goods (HKG:933) A Risky Investment?

Is Viva Goods (HKG:933) A Risky Investment?

非凡领越(HKG:933)是一项有风险的投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/01 06:16

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Viva Goods Company Limited (HKG:933) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

霍华德·马克斯把它表达得很好,他说,与其担心股价波动,'永久损失的可能性才是我担心的风险...而我认识的每位实际投资者都在担心这个问题。所以看来聪明的投资者知道,债务(通常包括在破产中)是评估公司风险性有多大的一个非常重要因素。我们可以看到,非凡领越有限公司(HKG:933)的业务中确实使用了债务。但股东们应该担心它使用债务吗?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

债务带来了什么风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果一个企业无法偿还其债权人,那么它就必须等待债权人的怜悯。资本主义的一部分是“创造性毁灭”过程,即破产的公司会被银行残酷地清算。然而,更常见(但仍然痛苦的)情况是,它必须以低价募集新股权资本,从而永久地稀释股东。当然,债务的好处在于,它通常代表着廉价的资本,特别是当它取代了在具有高回报率的公司重新投资的股权稀释时。当我们考虑一家公司对债务的使用时,我们首先看现金和负债。

How Much Debt Does Viva Goods Carry?

非凡领越携带多少债务?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Viva Goods had debt of HK$917.1m, up from HK$803.5m in one year. But it also has HK$1.42b in cash to offset that, meaning it has HK$504.0m net cash.

下面的图片,您可以点击查看更详细信息,显示截至2024年6月,非凡领越的债务为91710万港元,比一年前的80350万港元有所增加。但它也有14.2亿港元的现金资金来抵消,这意味着它有50400万港元的净现金。

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SEHK:933 Debt to Equity History October 31st 2024
SEHK:933债务股本历史数据2024年10月31日

How Strong Is Viva Goods' Balance Sheet?

非凡领越的资产负债表有多强?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Viva Goods had liabilities of HK$3.62b due within a year, and liabilities of HK$2.25b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$1.42b as well as receivables valued at HK$819.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total HK$3.63b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

最新的资产负债表数据显示,非凡领越有36.2亿港元的短期负债,以及之后到期的22.5亿港元的债务。 抵消这些义务,它拥有14.2亿港元的现金,以及价值81910万港元的应收账款,12个月内到期。 因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收款项的组合多出36.3亿港元。

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of HK$5.45b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Viva Goods' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Viva Goods boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load! There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Viva Goods will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

相对于其54.5亿港元的市值,这个赤字相当可观,因此确实表明股东应该密切关注非凡领越的债务使用。 如果其债权人要求巩固资产负债表,股东可能面临严重稀释。尽管其显著的负债,非凡领越拥有净现金,因此可以说它没有沉重的债务负担! 毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解债务的大部分情况。 但你不能孤立地看待债务;因为非凡领越将需要收入来偿还债务。 因此,在考虑债务时,绝对值得看一看盈利趋势。 点击这里查看互动快照。

Over 12 months, Viva Goods made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to HK$11b, which is a fall of 6.2%. That's not what we would hope to see.

在过去的12个月里,非凡领越在EBIt水平上亏损,并看到其营业收入下降到110亿港元,下降了6.2%。 这不是我们希望看到的。

So How Risky Is Viva Goods?

非凡领越有多大风险?

Although Viva Goods had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last twelve months, it generated positive free cash flow of HK$507m. So although it is loss-making, it doesn't seem to have too much near-term balance sheet risk, keeping in mind the net cash. Until we see some positive EBIT, we're a bit cautious of the stock, not least because of the rather modest revenue growth. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Viva Goods , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

尽管在过去十二个月内非凡领越EBIT亏损,但其产生了50700万港元的正自由现金流。 因此,尽管亏损,考虑到净现金,它似乎没有太多短期资产负债表风险。 在看到一些正面的EBIt之前,我们对股票有点谨慎,至少部分原因是收入增长相当适度。 毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解债务的大部分情况。 但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表之外的风险。 我们已经发现了1个与非凡领越有关的警告信号,了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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