It's shaping up to be a tough period for Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥6.1b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 28%, coming in at just CN¥0.42 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, Shanghai M&G Stationery's 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥30.1b in 2025. This would be a huge 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 36% to CN¥2.13. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥30.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.16 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target fell 6.9% to CN¥39.20, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Shanghai M&G Stationery analyst has a price target of CN¥56.57 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥23.60. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Shanghai M&G Stationery'shistorical trends, as the 18% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 18% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 19% per year. It's clear that while Shanghai M&G Stationery's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Shanghai M&G Stationery's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shanghai M&G Stationery going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Shanghai M&G Stationery .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.