Slower Labor Cost Gains Point to Stable Inflation and Economic Growth
Slower Labor Cost Gains Point to Stable Inflation and Economic Growth
These signs of cooling wage growth and moderating labor costs indicate a shift toward the Federal Reserve's inflation goals. The slower pace of wage gains, along with the recent policy easing by the Fed, suggests a concerted effort to balance inflation control with economic support. The Fed's anticipated rate cut next week could further stimulate the economy while supporting a stable labor market, positioning the U.S. economy for sustainable growth.U.S. labor costs saw their smallest quarterly gain in over three years during Q3, signaling a cooling in wage growth and reinforcing signs that inflation is easing. The Employment Cost Index (ECI), which measures labor costs comprehensively, rose 0.8% in the third quarter, below economists' expectations of 0.9%. The annual increase in labor costs also decelerated, climbing just 3.9% through September, its slowest pace since 2021. This trend suggests that inflationary pressures are subsiding, aligning with the Federal Reserve's inflation target.
美国劳工成本在第三季度录得三年多来增幅最小，表明工资增长放缓，也进一步印证通胀有所放缓的迹象。全面衡量劳工成本的就业成本指数（ECI）在第三季度上升了0.8%，低于经济学家预期的0.9%。劳工成本的年度增长也放缓，截至九月份仅增长了3.9%，为自2021年以来最慢的增速。这一趋势表明通胀压力正在减弱，与美联储的通胀目标一致。
Wages and salaries, which comprise the majority of labor costs, also rose by 0.8% last quarter, a modest increase compared to previous quarters. Private sector wages mirrored this trend with a 3.8% annual increase, down from 4.1% in Q2, reflecting a broader trend of cooling wage pressures. Additionally, state and local government wages grew by 1.0% for the quarter, underscoring a slight deceleration across both private and public sectors.
工资和薪金占劳工成本大部分，上季度也上涨了0.8%，与之前几个季度相比增幅较小。私营部门的工资也呈现出这一趋势，年度增长为3.8%，低于第二季度的4.1%，反映了工资压力减弱的普遍趋势。此外，州和地方政府的工资在季度内增长了1.0%，突显了私营和公共部门的略微减速。
Market Overview:
市场概况：
- Labor costs rose 0.8% in Q3, the smallest gain since Q2 2021.
- Annual labor cost growth decelerated to 3.9%, aligning with inflation targets.
- Fed expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.
- 劳工成本在第三季度上涨了0.8%，是自2021年第二季度以来的最小增幅。
- 年度劳工成本增长放缓至3.9%，与通胀目标一致。
- 联邦储备委员会预计下周将降息25个基点。
- Wages and salaries rose 0.8% in Q3, consistent with easing inflation.
- Benefits for workers increased 0.8%, showing broader labor cost stability.
- Private sector wages grew 3.8% annually, down from Q2's 4.1% increase.
- 工资和薪金在第三季度上涨了0.8%，与通胀有所放缓的趋势一致。
- 工人福利增长了0.8%，显示了更广泛的劳动成本稳定。
- 私营部门工资年均增长3.8%，低于第二季度的4.1%增长。
- Fed's interest rate cuts aim to support economic growth as inflation cools.
- Stabilizing labor costs may bolster consumer spending into 2024.
- Continued moderation in wage growth could ease market pressures further.
- 美联储的利率削减旨在支持经济增长，同时通胀趋缓。
- 稳定的劳动成本可能在2024年推动消费支出。
- 工资增长继续放缓，可能进一步缓解市场压力。
These signs of cooling wage growth and moderating labor costs indicate a shift toward the Federal Reserve's inflation goals. The slower pace of wage gains, along with the recent policy easing by the Fed, suggests a concerted effort to balance inflation control with economic support. The Fed's anticipated rate cut next week could further stimulate the economy while supporting a stable labor market, positioning the U.S. economy for sustainable growth.
这些迹象表明工资增长放缓和劳动成本逐渐减少，表明朝着美联储的通胀目标转变。工资增长的放缓，以及美联储最近的政策放松，表明在控制通胀和经济支持之间努力平衡。美联储下周预计的利率削减可能进一步刺激经济，同时支持稳定的劳动市场，为可持续增长奠定基础。
With inflation showing signs of containment, the Fed's approach to gradual interest rate reductions could provide a pathway for economic resilience. As labor cost pressures ease, consumer spending remains a vital driver of growth, signaling a potential uptick in economic activity and stability as the U.S. heads into 2024.
随着通胀呈现遏制迹象，美联储逐步降息的策略可能为经济的韧性提供了一条道路。随着劳动成本压力减轻，消费支出仍然是增长的重要推动力，预示着在美国步入2024年时可能出现经济活动和稳定的潜在增长。
