Last week, you might have seen that Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to US$376 in the past week. Revenues of US$16b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$5.06, missing estimates by 4.3%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Caterpillar's 14 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$66.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$22.10, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$66.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$22.27 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$364, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Caterpillar at US$500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$250. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Caterpillar's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Caterpillar is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Caterpillar's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$364, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Caterpillar. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Caterpillar going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Caterpillar (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.