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Earnings Miss: Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 71% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Earnings Miss: Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 71% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

盈利不及预期:江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司每股收益低于预期71%,分析师正在调整他们的预测
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/02 07:25

As you might know, Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002304) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥4.6b) coming in 41% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.41 fell 71% short. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

你可能知道,江苏洋河酒厂有限公司(SZSE:002304)上周发布了最新一季度,但对股东来说,情况并不那么好。分析师在公布这些业绩之前似乎过于乐观,(46亿元人民币)的收入比他们的预期低41%。0.41元人民币的法定每股收益下降了71%。对于投资者来说,这是一个重要时刻,因为他们可以在报告中追踪公司的业绩,看看专家对明年的预测,看看对该业务的预期是否有任何变化。因此,我们收集了最新的财报后预测,以了解估计对明年的预测。

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SZSE:002304 Earnings and Revenue Growth November 1st 2024
SZSE: 002304 2024 年 11 月 1 日收益和收入增长

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery from 21 analysts is for revenues of CN¥35.5b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 24% to CN¥6.90. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥36.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥7.16 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

考虑到最新业绩,21位分析师对江苏洋河酒厂的最新共识是,2025年的收入为355元人民币。如果得到满足,这意味着其收入在过去12个月中将大幅增长17%。预计每股收益将激增24%,至6.90元人民币。在本财报发布之前,分析师一直预测2025年收入为364元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为7.16元人民币。鉴于收入预测下降和每股收益预期小幅下降,分析师不如公布业绩之前那么乐观。

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥96.69, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery at CN¥145 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥61.60. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

分析师没有对96.69元人民币的目标股价做出重大调整,这表明下调评级预计不会对江苏洋河酒厂的估值产生长期影响。研究分析师的估计范围,评估异常值与平均值的差异程度也可能很有启发性。目前,最看涨的分析师对江苏洋河酒厂的估值为每股145元人民币,而最看跌的分析师估值为61.60元人民币。注意到分析师目标股价的巨大差距了吗?对我们来说,这意味着基础业务存在相当广泛的可能情景。

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

当然,看待这些预测的另一种方法是将它们与行业本身联系起来。从最新估计中可以明显看出,江苏洋河酒厂的增长率预计将显著加速,预计到2025年底,年化收入增长13%,明显快于过去五年中每年11%的历史增长。相比之下,同行业的其他公司预计收入每年将增长11%。预计江苏洋河酒厂的增长速度将与其行业大致相同,因此目前尚不清楚我们能否从其相对于竞争对手的增长中得出任何结论。

The Bottom Line

底线

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

最大的担忧是,分析师下调了每股收益预期,这表明江苏洋河酒厂可能会面临业务不利因素。他们还下调了收入预期,尽管正如我们之前看到的那样,预计增长仅与整个行业大致相同。共识目标股价没有实际变化,这表明根据最新估计,该业务的内在价值没有发生任何重大变化。

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

考虑到这一点,我们不会很快就江苏洋河酒厂得出结论。长期盈利能力比明年的利润重要得多。根据多位江苏洋河酒厂分析师的估计,到2026年,你可以在我们的平台上免费查看。

Even so, be aware that Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

即便如此,请注意,江苏洋河酒厂在我们的投资分析中显示了1个警告信号,您应该知道...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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