We Think Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:CMC) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过,“波动性与风险远非同义词”。因此,似乎明智的投资者知道,债务(通常涉及破产)是评估公司风险性的一个非常重要因素。与许多其他公司一样,美国工商五金公司(纽交所:CMC)使用债务。但这种债务是否令股东担忧呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
企业通过新资本或自由现金流支付债务。债务协助业务直至业务遇到问题。在最坏的情况下,公司无法偿付债权人,可能会破产。然而,更普遍(但仍惨痛的)情况是以低价格募集新股权资本,因此永久稀释股东的股份。当然,许多公司使用债务资助业务增长,而毫无负面后果。在检查债务水平时,首先考虑现金和债务水平。
How Much Debt Does Commercial Metals Carry?
美国工商五金公司负债多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Commercial Metals had US$1.05b in debt in August 2024; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$857.9m, its net debt is less, at about US$190.4m.
下图显示,美国工商五金公司于2024年8月有10.5亿美元的债务;与前一年持平。然而,由于其现金储备达到了85790万美元,其净债务较少,约为19040万美元。

How Strong Is Commercial Metals' Balance Sheet?
美国工商五金公司的资产负债表有多强?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Commercial Metals had liabilities of US$834.9m due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.68b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$857.9m in cash and US$1.16b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$500.9m.
最新的资产负债表显示,美国工商五金公司有83490万美元的短期到期负债,以及16.8亿美元的到期后负债。相对应的,其有85790万美元的现金和11.6亿美元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,其负债比其现金和(短期)应收账款的总和多50090万美元。
Given Commercial Metals has a market capitalization of US$6.13b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
考虑到美国工商五金公司市值为61.3亿美元,很难相信这些负债构成了多大威胁。尽管如此,显而易见我们应该继续监控其资产负债表,以防情况变得更糟。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们通过将公司的净债务与其息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)相除,并计算其息税前利润(EBIT)如何覆盖其利息费用(利息覆盖率)来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力。因此,我们同时考虑债务的绝对数量以及所支付的利率。
Commercial Metals's net debt is only 0.21 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 14.5 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. It is just as well that Commercial Metals's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 41% over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Commercial Metals can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
美国工商五金公司的净债务仅为EBITDA的0.21倍。而其EBIt覆盖其利息费用高达14.5倍。所以我们对其超保守的债务使用相当放心。很幸运的是,美国工商五金公司的负担并不太重,因为其EBIt在过去一年下降了41%。收入下降(如果趋势持续)甚至可能使即使是适度的债务变得相当风险。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但最终业务的未来盈利能力将决定美国工商五金公司是否能随时间加强其资产负债表。所以如果你专注于未来,你可以查看这份免费报告,显示分析师的利润预测。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Commercial Metals recorded free cash flow of 49% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
但我们最后的考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用纸面利润偿还债务;它需要现金。因此,验证EBIt有多少是由自由现金流支持是值得的。回顾最近的三年,美国工商五金公司记录的自由现金流占其EBIt的49%,低于我们的预期。在偿还债务时,这不太好。
Our View
我们的观点
Based on what we've seen Commercial Metals is not finding it easy, given its EBIT growth rate, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Commercial Metals is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Commercial Metals that you should be aware of before investing here.
根据我们观察到的情况,美国工商五金公司似乎并不轻松,鉴于其EBIt增长率,但考虑到我们认为的其他因素,我们有理由乐观。毫无疑问,它用EBIt覆盖利息费用的能力相当突出。当我们考虑到上述所有因素时,我们认为美国工商五金公司在管理债务方面做得相当不错。但需要注意的是:我们认为债务水平足够高,需要进行持续监控。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中大部分了解债务情况。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表之外的风险。例如,我们发现了1个关于美国工商五金公司的警示标志,您在投资之前应该注意。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。
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