Why Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan)'s (SZSE:002265) Healthy Earnings Aren't As Good As They Seem
Why Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan)'s (SZSE:002265) Healthy Earnings Aren't As Good As They Seem
Shareholders didn't seem to be thrilled with Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002265) recent earnings report, despite healthy profit numbers. Our analysis suggests they may be concerned about some underlying details.
股东似乎对建设工业(云南)股份有限公司(SZSE:002265)最近的盈利报告并不感到高兴,尽管利润数字不错。我们的分析表明,他们可能担心一些潜在的细节。
A Closer Look At Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan)'s Earnings
深入了解建设工业(云南)的盈利情况
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
在高级财务中,用来衡量公司将报告的利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的主要比率是应计比率(来自现金流量表)。该应计比率从给定期间的FCF中减去利润,并将结果除以该时间段内公司的平均营运资产。你可以将应计比率从现金流量表视为“非自由现金流利润比率”。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
这意味着负应计比率是一件好事,因为它表明公司带来的自由现金流比其利润所建议的要多。这并不意味着我们应该担心正应计比率,但值得注意的是应计比率相当高的地方。这是因为一些学术研究表明,高应计比率往往会导致利润降低或利润增长较少。
For the year to September 2024, Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) had an accrual ratio of 0.28. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥154m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥283.4m. It's worth noting that Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) generated positive FCF of CN¥408m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan)'s accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
截至2024年9月的一年内,建设工业(云南)的应计比例为0.28。因此,我们可以推断其自由现金流远不足以覆盖其法定利润。过去一年,其实际自由现金流为15400万元人民币的负数,与前述的2.83亿元人民币的盈利形成对比。值得注意的是,建设工业(云南)在一年前创造了总计40800万元人民币的正自由现金流,所以至少他们过去做到了。然而,需要考虑的不仅仅是这些。我们可以看到,飞凡项目影响了其法定利润,因此也影响了应计比例。对股东的好消息是,建设工业(云南)的应计比例去年要好得多,因此今年的不佳读数可能只是盈利和自由现金流之间短期不匹配的情况。因此,一些股东可能正在寻求本年度更强的现金转换。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan).
注意: 我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击这里查看我们对云南建设工业的资产负债表分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常规项目如何影响利润?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan)'s profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥95m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.
考虑到应计比率,云南建设工业的利润在过去十二个月中因价值9500万人民币的飞凡项目而获得提振,并不令人过度惊讶。我们不得不承认,更高的利润通常让我们感到乐观,但如果利润能够持续下去,我们会更喜欢。我们对全球大多数上市公司进行了数据分析,发现飞凡项目通常是一次性的。这也是意料之中的,因为这些提振被描述为“飞凡”。相比于2024年9月,云南建设工业的利润中有一部分显著来自飞凡项目。因此,我们可以推断,这些飞凡项目使其法定利润比原本强大得多。
Our Take On Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan)'s Profit Performance
我们对云南建设工业的利润表现的看法
Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan)'s statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example - Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
云南建设工业的应计比率较低,但其利润确实受到飞凡项目的提振。基于上述原因,我们认为仅仅粗略地查看云南建设工业的法定利润可能让其看起来比实际情况更好一些。考虑到这一点,除非我们深入了解风险,否则我们不会考虑投资股票。例如,云南建设工业有1个警示标志,我们认为您应该注意。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
在这篇文章中,我们已经看到了许多可以削弱利润数字实用性的因素,并且我们留下了审慎的心态。但是,如果您能够专注于细节,那么总能发现更多。一些人认为高股东回报率是优质企业的良好迹象。尽管这可能需要您进行一些研究,但您可能会发现这个高股东回报率公司列表或至少有一个重要内部持股的股票列表对您有所帮助。
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