Prediction Markets Swing Back To Trump, But Data Analysts Say It's Too Close To Call
Prediction Markets Swing Back To Trump, But Data Analysts Say It's Too Close To Call
The Election Betting Odds website, an aggregator of betting markets, shows Trump with a 54.8% chance of victory, up from 51.6% on Sunday.Donald Trump has regained his advantage over Kamala Harris in online prediction markets on the final day before the election, but FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver aren't so sure.
特朗普概念在选举前最后一天恢复了对卡玛拉·哈里斯的优势，但FiveThirtyEight和Nate Silver并不那么确定。
What Happened: Harris moved ahead of Trump on the Kalshi betting market over the weekend, but as of Monday afternoon, Kalshi wagerers are giving Trump a 54% chance of victory, expecting Trump to win in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, with Harris carrying Michigan and Wisconsin. But Kalshi betters also say there is a 75% chance that Harris will win the national popular vote.
哈里斯在周末在Kalshi赌博市场上超过了特朗普，但截至周一下午，Kalshi赌徒认为特朗普有54%的获胜机会，预计特朗普将在亚利桑那州、乔治亚州、内华达州、北卡罗来纳州和宾夕法尼亚州获胜，而哈里斯将赢得密歇根州和威斯康星州。但Kalshi博彩者也表示，哈里斯赢得全国普选的机会为75%。
On Polymarket, Trump is seen with a 58% chance of victory. Only PredictIt is anticipating a Harris victory, with her 54% chance among its users unchanged since Sunday. Across the prediction sites, Nevada and Pennsylvania are expected to be the closest states, with Trump expected to carry Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and Harris expected to win in Michigan and Wisconsin.
在Polymarket上，特朗普获胜的机会为58%。只有PredictIt预计哈里斯将获胜，其用户中她的54%的机会自周日以来未变。在各预测网站上，内华达州和宾夕法尼亚州预计将是最悬殊的州，特朗普预计将赢得亚利桑那州、乔治亚州和北卡罗来纳州，哈里斯预计将赢得密歇根州和威斯康星州。
The Election Betting Odds website, an aggregator of betting markets, shows Trump with a 54.8% chance of victory, up from 51.6% on Sunday.
选举赌注网站，作为各赌博市场的汇总者，显示特朗普获胜的机会为54.8%，高于周日的51.6%。
Also Read: 2024 Election Stakes: Potential Sweeps, Split Outcomes In Congressional, Presidential Races
另请阅读：2024年选举赌注：国会、总统选举中的潜在全胜和分裂结果
The somewhat comfortable odds for Trump on Kalshi and Polymarket, and for Harris on PredictIt, are not reflected in the latest data projections. FiveThirtyEight's latest data-driven simulations show Trump winning 51.8% of the tests, to 48.0% for Harris. Silver, in his Silver Bullet newsletter, is even less certain, giving Trump a 50.2% chance of victory to Harris' 49.2%.
Kalshi和Polymarket对特朗普有着相对舒适的胜算，PredictIt则对哈里斯有着相同的看涨，但这并未体现在最新的数据预测中。FiveThirtyEight最新的数据驱动模拟显示，特朗普有51.8%的胜率，而哈里斯有48.0%。特朗普的Silver Bullet新闻简报中，连特朗普自己都不太确定，给了特朗普50.2%的获胜机会，而哈里斯为49.2%。
Why It Matters: Prediction markets that have generally favored Donald Trump moved away from him over the weekend, but now are shifting back, though not as strongly. This indicates late shifts in momentum in an election that is expected to be decided by the narrowest of margins.
为什么重要：普遍青睐唐纳德·特朗普的预测市场在周末转向他，但现在又在回归，尽管没有那么强烈。这表明在一场预计将由极为微弱的优势决定的选举中，动量出现了最后的转变。
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver, relying on polling numbers and other data gleaned from trends and past campaigns, are essentially calling the race a toss-up.
根据FiveThirtyEight和内特·银的调查数据和过去的竞选数据，可以说这场比赛是一场不确定性的比赛。
The presidential race remains too close to call, and may continue to be so long into Election Night.
总统竞选仍然胶着不下，可能会持续到选举之夜。
