Kamala Harris Backed By Polymarket's Top 3 All-Time Traders, But Two Of Them Have Hedged Their Bets
Kamala Harris Backed By Polymarket's Top 3 All-Time Traders, But Two Of Them Have Hedged Their Bets
With election day underway, prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are showing divergent odds for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as major politics traders have placed their bets on the Vice President.
随着选举日的进行,预测市场Polymarket和Kalshi展示了卡玛拉·哈里斯和特朗普概念的胜算不同,因为主要政治交易商已经下注于这位副总统。
What Happened: Kamala Harris's odds of winning the presidency stand at 41% on Kalshi, compared to 38.4% on Polymarket at the time of writing. The spread between the two platforms was as big as 6% in the early morning U.S. Eastern time. Kalshi has a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to list election-related trading contracts.
发生了什么:卡拉拉·哈里斯赢得总统选举的几率在Kalshi上是41%,而在Polymarket上为38.4%。两个平台之间的差距在美国东部时间早上达到了6%。Kalshi获得了商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的许可,以列出与选举相关的交易合约。
The top three traders on Polymarket have all sided with the Vice President to win the election.
在Polymarket上排名前三的交易者都支持副总统赢得选举。
Veteran trader Domer has wagered $224,344 on Harris winning the electoral college, $147,766 on a Democrat taking both the popular vote and Presidency and $164,884 on a Democrat winning the state of Pennsylvania. In a post on X, the all-time leading trader on the platform cited his estimate of Kamala Harris's chances to win the election around 55-60%.
The second trader on Polymarket's all-time ranking, Rueben, bet over $300,000 on the Vice President to win the popular vote, the electoral college and the Democratic Party to win the Presidency and the House but lose control of the Senate. However, the trader also has a roughly $50,000 stake on the GOP to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote., with a total profit of $1.6 million recorded in his portfolio.
Third-placed trader YatSen bet $172,810 on a Democratic win in the popular vote and presidency, and $57,622 on Harris. The trader also has over $120,000 staked on an electoral college/popular vote split where Trump wins the presidency.
资深交易员Domer押注了$224,344美元赌卡拉·哈里斯赢得选举人团票,$147,766美元押注民主党人赢得普选和总统职位,以及$164,884美元押注民主党人赢得宾夕法尼亚州。在X发帖中,平台上历史排名第一的交易员引用了他对卡拉拉·哈里斯赢得选举的估计约为55-60%。
在Polymarket历史排名第二的交易员Rueben在副总统赢得普选、选举人团票以及民主党赢得总统和众议院但失去参议院方面下注超过了30万美元。但是,该交易员还在共和党赢得选举人团票但输掉普选方面押注了大约$50,000,他的投资组合中记录的总利润为160万美元左右。
排名第三的交易员逸仙电商在民主党赢得普选和总统职位方面押注了$172,810美元,以及在哈里斯身上押注了$57,622美元。该交易员还押注超过$120,000美元在选举人团票/普选分开的情况下特朗普赢得总统。
What's Next: The influence of prediction markets is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
未来展望:预测市场的影响力预计将在Benzinga即将到来的数字资产未来活动(11月19日)上得到充分探讨。