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ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's (SZSE:002041) Earnings Quality Is Low

ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's (SZSE:002041) Earnings Quality Is Low

山东登海种业股份有限公司(SZSE:002041)的盈利质量较低
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/05 17:17

Shareholders didn't appear too concerned by ShanDongDenghai Seeds Co.,Ltd's (SZSE:002041) weak earnings. We did some analysis and found some concerning details beneath the statutory profit number.

股东对于山东登海种业股份有限公司(SZSE:002041)的疲弱收益似乎并不太担心。我们进行了一些分析,发现了一些令人关注的细节藏在这则法定利润数字背后。

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SZSE:002041 Earnings and Revenue History November 5th 2024
SZSE:002041 盈利和营业收入历史数据 2024年11月5日

Examining Cashflow Against ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's Earnings

对比山东登海种业股份有限公司的现金流与盈利情况

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

用于衡量公司如何将其利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的一个关键财务比率是应计比率。应计比率从给定期间的自由现金流中减去利润,然后将结果除以公司在那段时间内的平均营运资产。这个比率告诉我们,公司利润中有多少不受自由现金流支持。

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

因此,当一家公司的应计项目比率为负时,实际上是一件好事,但如果其应计项目比率为正,则是一件坏事。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计项目比率为正,但值得注意的是,当应计项目比率相当高时,可能会导致利润或利润增长降低。

For the year to September 2024, ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd had an accrual ratio of 0.49. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥131m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥219.0m. We saw that FCF was CN¥88m a year ago though, so ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

截至2024年9月的年度,山东登海种业股份有限公司的计提比率为0.49。一般来说,这对未来的盈利能力不利。事实上,在这段时期内公司根本没有产生任何自由现金流。过去一年,与前述的盈利人民币21900万元相反,它实际上有着13100万元的负面自由现金流。然而,一年前我们看到自由现金流为8800万元,所以山东登海种业股份有限公司至少过去有能力产生正面自由现金流。话虽如此,事情还有待了解。计提比率部分反映了异常项目对法定利润的影响。

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

非常规项目如何影响利润?

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥69m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

公司去年非凡项目带来6,900万人民币的利润,这可能在一定程度上解释了为什么其应计比率如此薄弱。我们不能否认,利润增加通常让我们感到乐观,但我们更希望利润能够持续。当我们对成千上万家上市公司的数据进行分析时,我们发现在某一年由于非凡项目的提振往往不会在下一年重复出现。毕竟,这正是会计术语所暗示的。与2024年9月利润相比,登海种业从非凡项目获得了相当大的贡献。因此,我们可以推断非凡项目使其法定利润明显强于其本来的水平。

Our Take On ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's Profit Performance

我们对登海种业的利润表现看法

ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. If you want to do dive deeper into ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd.

登海种业的应计比率较低,但其利润确实受益于非凡项目的提振。基于上述所有原因,我们认为,乍一看,登海种业的法定利润可能被认为是低质量的,因为它们可能给投资者过于乐观的印象。如果您想更深入地了解登海种业,您还应该研究目前它面临的风险。例如,我们发现了1个警告信号,您应该仔细审视,以更好地了解登海种业的全貌。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

在本文中,我们展示了影响利润数字的各种因素,并谨慎对待。但是,还有很多其他方法可以了解公司的情况。有些人认为高回报股本回报率是一家优质企业的好迹象。虽然可能需要您自己进行一些研究,但您可能会发现此免费收藏的公司以高股本回报率为荣,或此持有重要内部股份的股票清单可能会有所帮助。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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