Republican Clean Sweep A Bullish Scenario For S&P 500: Franklin Templeton
Republican Clean Sweep A Bullish Scenario For S&P 500: Franklin Templeton
"Historically, a Republican clean sweep has been the most bullish scenario for S&P500 average returns, generating average of 16% returns during the administration says Christy Tan, Investment Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute.
从历史数据来看,共和党全面胜选通常是标普500指数平均回报率最高的情形,这种情况下的投资策略师克里斯蒂·谭表示,通常会在政府任期内实现平均16%的回报率,她是富兰克林坦普顿研究所的投资策略师。
For equities, she said the biggest winners will be sectors and industries welcoming a more business-friendly regulatory environment, including fossil fuel energy companies, financial services and smaller capitalisation companies. Fears of caps on prescription drug prices will recede, boosting the fortunes of the pharma sector.
对于股票市场,她表示,最大赢家将是欢迎更加友好的商业监管环境的行业和公司,包括化石燃料能源公司、金融服务行业和较小市值的公司。人们担心的药品价格上限将逐渐消退,从而提振制药行业的前景。
Given the results, the extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts is somewhat assured. It is probable that the statutory and effective corporate tax rates will be lowered (the former to perhaps 15%) and that sweeping changes to business regulation will follow. What is less certain is whether tariffs will be increased on the scale and scope matching Trump's campaign rhetoric. That outcome will likely be determined on a case-by-case via bargaining among trading partners and with considerable input from the US business community.
鉴于选择结果,2017年特朗普税收减免措施的延长在一定程度上可以得到保证。有可能将法定企业税率和有效税率降低(前者可能降至15%),并将随之出台关于商业监管的全面变革。较不确定的是是否会按照特朗普竞选中的承诺提高关税规模和范围。这一结果可能会通过与贸易伙伴之间的谈判以及在很大程度上听取美国商界的意见来做出决定,需要逐案来决定。
Looking at fixed income, Christy says there are realistic expectations and concerns over the increase in long-term debt supply to finance short-term fiscal spending which will likely lead to higher yields in the long end of the curve.
在固定收益方面,克里斯蒂表示,人们对长期债务供应的增加以资助短期财政支出存在现实的预期和担忧,这很可能会导致曲线长端的收益率上升。
However, for investors looking at the next 6-12 months, Franklin said it can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle and the house expects the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification. According to Franklin's investment teams they are expecting 10Y yield to fall to 3.75% and Fed funds rate to fall to 3.6% by the end of 2025.
然而,对于在未来6-12个月内寻找投资机会的投资者来说,富兰克林表示,可以肯定的是美联储将维持其宽松政策,该机构预计整体环境将有利于固定收益投资以实现投资组合多元化。根据富兰克林的投资团队,他们预计10年期美国国债收益率将在2025年底降至3.75%,联邦基金利率将降至3.6%。
Analysis of subsequent returns following past Fed rate cuts associated with soft landings shows that short-to-intermediate Treasury bonds have, on average, performed better than long-duration Treasuries. Moreover, they have exhibited smaller dispersion in returns, consistently generating positive performance one year after the Fed cuts. In general, the shorter end of the curve is more sensitive to Fed policy moves.
对过去美联储降息后出现软着陆的相应回报进行分析显示,短期至中长期国债的平均表现优于长期国债。此外,它们的回报差异较小,始终在美联储降息后一年内产生正收益。一般来说,曲线短端对美联储政策调整更加敏感。
The US dollar is advancing on foreign exchange markets, boosted by the combination of higher US bond yields and the anticipation of strong inflows into US public and private equity markets.
美元在汇率期货市场上不断攀升,受益于美国债券收益率上升和对美国公共和私人股权市场强劲资金流入的预期。
With most signs pointing to a significant Republican victory, ongoing stock, bond, and currency market moves will be reinforced. At some point, however, rising bond yields may cap equity market gains.
随着大部分迹象都指向一场重要的共和党胜利,不断进行的股票、债券和货币市场走势将会得到强化。然而,随着债券收益率的上升,股票市场的收益可能会受到限制。