We Think Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding (SZSE:002471) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding (SZSE:002471) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002471) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
沃伦•巴菲特曾经说过,“波动性与风险远非同义词”。当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢看看其债务的使用情况,因为债务超载可能会导致破产。我们可以看到,中超控股有限公司(SZSE:002471)在业务中确实使用了债务。但这个债务会让股东担忧吗?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还债权人的债务,那么它将存在于债权人的掌控之中。最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能一无所获。然而,更常见的(但仍然昂贵)情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东权益,以便控制债务。当然,很多公司使用债务来资助增长,没有任何负面后果。在考虑一家公司的债务水平时的第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。
How Much Debt Does Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding Carry?
中超控股承担了多少债务?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding had CN¥1.98b in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. However, it does have CN¥811.9m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥1.16b.
下面的图表显示,江苏中超控股有限公司于2024年9月有19.8亿人民币的债务;与前一年相比大致相同。然而,它也有81190万人民币的现金用以抵消,导致净债务约为11.6亿人民币。
A Look At Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding's Liabilities
中超控股的负债情况一览
The latest balance sheet data shows that Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding had liabilities of CN¥3.97b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥83.2m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥811.9m and CN¥2.55b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥692.3m.
最新资产负债表数据显示,中超控股一年内到期的负债为人民币39.7亿,之后到期的负债为人民币8320万。另一方面,公司现金为人民币81190万,应收账款一年内到期为人民币25.5亿。因此,其负债比现金和(短期)应收账款的总和多出人民币69230万。
Since publicly traded Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding shares are worth a total of CN¥3.87b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
由于江苏中超控股的上市股份总值为人民币38.7亿,这种程度的负债似乎不太可能构成重大威胁。然而,我们认为值得关注其资产负债表的强度,因为这可能随着时间推移而变化。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们通过将公司的净债务与其息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)相除,并计算其息税前利润(EBIT)如何覆盖其利息费用(利息覆盖率)来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力。因此,我们同时考虑债务的绝对数量以及所支付的利率。
Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (11.3), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.77 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. One redeeming factor for Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding is that it turned last year's EBIT loss into a gain of CN¥50m, over the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
江苏中超控股股东面临的双重打击是高净债务与EBITDA比例(11.3),以及相当薄弱的利息偿付能力,因为EBIT仅为利息支出的0.77倍。这里的债务负担相当重。中超控股的一个拯救之处是,将去年的EBIT亏损转化为过去12个月的5000万人民币收益。在分析债务时,资产负债表显然是关注的重点领域。然而,决定资产负债表未来表现的是中超控股的盈利情况。所以,如果您渴望了解更多关于其盈利的信息,不妨查看其长期盈利趋势图。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
最后,一家公司只能用现金而非会计利润偿还债务。因此,值得检查利息和税前盈利(EBIT)有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去一年里,江苏中超控股的自由现金流实际比EBIT更多。对于保持与贷款人良好关系来说,没有什么比现金流入更好的了。
Our View
我们的观点
We weren't impressed with Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding's net debt to EBITDA, and its interest cover made us cautious. But like a ballerina ending on a perfect pirouette, it has not trouble converting EBIT to free cash flow. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
我们对中超控股的净债务与EBITDA比率并不满意,其利润保障让我们谨慎。但就像芭蕾舞者以完美的转身结束一样,它毫无困扰地将EBIt转化为自由现金流。当我们考虑以上提到的所有因素时,我们确实对中超控股的债务使用感到有些谨慎。虽然债务在提高潜在回报方面有其优势,但我们认为股东们应该考虑债务水平可能会使股票更加风险。资产负债表显然是分析债务时要重点关注的领域。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表范围的风险。例如,我们已经识别出中超控股的2个警告信号(其中1个不容忽视),您应该注意。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。
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