Xiamen Jihong Technology's (SZSE:002803) Conservative Accounting Might Explain Soft Earnings
Xiamen Jihong Technology's (SZSE:002803) Conservative Accounting Might Explain Soft Earnings
Xiamen Jihong Technology Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002803) stock was strong despite it releasing a soft earnings report last week. We think that investors might be looking at some positive factors beyond the earnings numbers.
厦门吉宏科技有限公司(SZSE:002803)的股票在上周发布了一份财报后仍然表现强劲。我们认为投资者可能正在看一些超出盈利数字的积极因素。
Examining Cashflow Against Xiamen Jihong Technology's Earnings
检查厦门吉宏科技的现金流与盈利情况
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
在高金融领域,用于衡量公司将其报告利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的关键比率是从现金流量中计算的应计率。简单点来说,这个比率从净利润中减去自由现金流,然后将这个数字除以公司在那段时间内的平均营业资产。从现金流来看,你可以把它看作是“非FCF利润率”。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,当公司的应计负债比率为负时,实际上是一件好事,但如果其应计负债比率为正,那就是一件坏事。虽然应计负债比率为正不是问题,表明某种程度的非现金利润,但高应计负债比率可以说是一件坏事,因为这表明纸面利润与现金流不匹配。因为一些学术研究表明,高应计负债比率往往导致利润较低或利润增长较少。
For the year to September 2024, Xiamen Jihong Technology had an accrual ratio of -0.16. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥424m, well over the CN¥156.2m it reported in profit. Xiamen Jihong Technology shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
截至2024年9月的一年时间里,厦门吉宏科技的应计比率为-0.16。这表明其自由现金流相当显著地超过了其法定利润。事实上,在过去十二个月中,它报告了人民币42400万的自由现金流,远超过其15620万的利润报告。厦门吉宏科技的股东无疑对过去十二个月内的自由现金流改善感到高兴。话虽如此,事情并非只有这些。我们可以看到异常事项已经影响了其法定利润,因此导致了应计比率。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常规项目如何影响利润?
Surprisingly, given Xiamen Jihong Technology's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥41m in unusual items. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. If Xiamen Jihong Technology doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
令人惊讶的是,厦门吉宏科技的应计比率意味着强劲的现金转换,其账面利润实际上受到4,100万人民币的飞凡项目推动。虽然我们喜欢看到利润增加,但当飞凡项目做出巨大贡献时,我们往往会更加谨慎。我们对全球大多数上市公司进行了财务分析,发现飞凡项目一次性出现是非常普遍的。这并不奇怪,鉴其名称。如果厦门吉宏科技没有看到这种贡献有所重演,那么其他条件相同的情况下,我们预计其利润在当年将会下降。
Our Take On Xiamen Jihong Technology's Profit Performance
我们对厦门吉宏科技的利润表现给出了我们的看法
Xiamen Jihong Technology's profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. Based on these factors, it's hard to tell if Xiamen Jihong Technology's profits are a reasonable reflection of its underlying profitability. If you want to do dive deeper into Xiamen Jihong Technology, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Xiamen Jihong Technology you should be aware of.
厦门吉宏科技的利润得到了飞凡项目的提振,这表明这些利润可能不会持续,然而其应计比率仍显示出良好的现金转化,这是令人鼓舞的。基于这些因素,很难判断厦门吉宏科技的利润是否合理反映了其潜在盈利能力。如果您想更深入地了解厦门吉宏科技,您还应该关注它目前面临的风险。举例说明:我们发现了3个厦门吉宏科技的警示信号,您应该注意。
Our examination of Xiamen Jihong Technology has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我们对厦门吉宏科技的审查已经关注了一些因素,这些因素可能使其盈利看起来比实际情况要好。但如果您能够将注意力集中在细枝末节上,总会有更多可以发现的东西。有些人认为高净资产回报率是高质量企业的好迹象。尽管对您而言可能需要一些研究,您可能会发现这里的一些公司拥有高净资产回报率,或者这些拥有重要内部持股的股票名单对您有所帮助。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧吗?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team @ simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章是一般性质的。我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,使用公正的方法,我们的文章并非意在提供财务建议。这并不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,并且不考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您带来基于基础数据驱动的长期聚焦分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St对提及的任何股票都没有持仓。