Is China Wuyi (SZSE:000797) A Risky Investment?
Is China Wuyi (SZSE:000797) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that China Wuyi Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000797) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
一些人说,作为投资者,最好的方式是将波动性而不是债务视为风险,但沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过,“波动性远非风险的代名词。” 所以显而易见,当您考虑任何特定股票的风险时,需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务可能会拖垮一家公司。我们可以看到中国五洲股份有限公司(SZSE:000797)在业务中使用了债务。但这笔债务是否让股东担忧?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业成长的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款,那么它就要依赖债权人的帮助。如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东们可能一无所有。虽然这种情况并不常见,但我们经常看到负债累累的公司因为债权人迫使他们以低价增资而永久稀释股东利益。然而,与稀释相比,债务可以成为对需要资本以高回报率投资于增长的企业非常有效的工具。当我们考虑公司的债务使用时,我们首先看现金和债务的总体情况。
What Is China Wuyi's Net Debt?
中国五洲的净债务是多少?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2024, China Wuyi had CN¥9.15b of debt, up from CN¥8.70b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥2.91b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥6.24b.
正如您所看到的,截至2024年9月底,中国五洲的债务为91.5亿人民币,比一年前的87亿人民币增加。点击图片以获取更多详细信息。然而,由于该公司拥有29.1亿人民币的现金储备,因此其净债务较少,约为62.4亿人民币。
How Healthy Is China Wuyi's Balance Sheet?
中国武夷的资产负债表有多健康?
The latest balance sheet data shows that China Wuyi had liabilities of CN¥12.9b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥4.84b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥2.91b in cash and CN¥2.26b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥12.6b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,中国武夷有129亿人民币的短期负债,以及48.4亿人民币的长期负债。相比之下,公司有29.1亿人民币的现金和22.6亿人民币的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,公司的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的组合多出126亿人民币。
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥5.32b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, China Wuyi would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
这一赤字给这家价值53.2亿人民币的公司蒙上了一层阴影,就像一座高耸在凡人之上的巨人。因此,我们会密切关注其资产负债表,毫无疑问。在一天结束时,如果其债权人要求偿还债务,中国武夷可能需要一次重大资本重组。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们通过将公司的净债务与其息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)相除,并计算其息税前利润(EBIT)如何覆盖其利息费用(利息覆盖率)来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力。因此,我们同时考虑债务的绝对数量以及所支付的利率。
With net debt to EBITDA of 4.3 China Wuyi has a fairly noticeable amount of debt. But the high interest coverage of 9.3 suggests it can easily service that debt. Importantly, China Wuyi grew its EBIT by 63% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is China Wuyi's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
中国武夷的净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)比率达到4.3,表明公司有相当可观的债务。但9.3的高利息覆盖率表明公司可以轻松偿还债务。重要的是,中国武夷在过去十二个月内将其EBIT增长了63%,这种增长将使其更容易应对债务。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中最多了解债务。但正是中国武夷的盈利将影响资产负债表未来的情况。因此,如果您渴望了解更多关于其盈利的信息,不妨查看该公司长期盈利趋势的图表。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, China Wuyi recorded free cash flow worth 68% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
最后,一家公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。因此,我们明显需要了解EBIT是否带来相应的自由现金流。在最近的三年中,中国武夷的自由现金流价值相当于其EBIT的68%,这在正常范围内,因为自由现金流不包括利息和税收。这笔冷硬现金意味着公司可以在需要时减少债务。
Our View
我们的观点
China Wuyi's level of total liabilities and net debt to EBITDA definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its EBIT growth rate tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that China Wuyi is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Wuyi that you should be aware of before investing here.
中国五洲的总负债和净债务与EBITDA的比率在我们看来确实对其造成了负面影响。但是其EBIT增长率讲述了一个完全不同的故事,并表明了一些韧性。综合考虑以上所有方面,我们认为中国五洲由于其债务而在一定程度上是一项风险投资。这并不一定是坏事,因为杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但这是需要注意的事情。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表之内 - 远非如此。例如,我们发现了关于中国五洲的2个警示信号,你在投资之前应该注意。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
每天结束时,通常更好地关注那些没有净债务的公司。您可以查看我们特别名单上的这些公司(所有这些公司都有盈利增长记录)。这是免费的。
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