Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd's (SHSE:688251) Profits May Be Overstating Its True Earnings Potential
Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd's (SHSE:688251) Profits May Be Overstating Its True Earnings Potential
Hefei Jingsong Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688251) posted some decent earnings, but shareholders didn't react strongly. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.
合肥景颂智能科技有限公司(SHSE:688251)发布了一些体面的收益,但股东们并没有强烈反应。我们认为他们可能担心一些我们分析发现的潜在细节。
A Closer Look At Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd's Earnings
深入研究合肥景颂智能科技有限公司的盈利能力
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
用于衡量公司如何将其利润转换为自由现金流的一个关键财务比率是应计比率。 简单来说,这个比率从净利润中减去自由现金流,并将该数字除以该期间内公司的平均营运资产。 该比率告诉我们,公司利润中有多少不是由自由现金流支持的。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
这意味着负的计提比率是一件好事,因为它表明公司带来的自由现金流比其利润所暗示的要多。虽然拥有正的计提比率毫无问题,表明某种程度的非现金利润,但高的计提比率则是一个坏信号,因为这表明纸面利润与现金流不匹配。值得注意的是,有一些学术证据表明,高的计提比率对近期利润总体上是一个坏兆头。
For the year to September 2024, Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd had an accrual ratio of 0.35. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥115m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥67.4m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥115m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
截至2024年9月的一年时间里,合肥景颂智能科技有限公司的应计比率为0.35。不幸的是,这意味着其自由现金流远低于其法定利润,这让我们对利润作为指导产生怀疑。去年实际上自由现金流为负11500万元人民币,与前述的利润6740万元人民币形成对比。考虑到去年负的自由现金流,我们想象一些股东可能会想知道,今年的1.15亿元人民币的现金烧损是否意味着高风险。然而,这并非所有需要考虑的。应计比率反映了非正常项目对法定利润的影响,至少部分如此。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd.
注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击此处查看我们对合肥景颂智能科技有限公司资产负债表分析。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀释之外,还应该注意的是,万集科技在过去12个月中因不寻常项目获得了价值人民币3.5万元的利润。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当这些不寻常项目对利润做出重大贡献时,我们会更加谨慎。我们对全球大部分上市公司的数据进行了分析,发现不寻常项目往往是一次性的。这正如我们所期望的那样,因为这些提升被描述为"不寻常"。相对于其利润而言,万集科技在2021年12月前的不寻常项目贡献大。因此,我们可以推断出,这些不寻常项目正在使其财务利润显著增强。
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥12m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
公司去年有飞凡项目提升了1,200万元利润,这或许可以解释为什么其应计率如此疲弱。我们不能否认更高的利润通常让我们感到乐观,但我们更希望利润可持续。当我们分析了全球大多数上市公司时,发现重大的飞凡项目通常不会重复出现。这也正如你所料,因为这些提升被称为“飞凡”。如果合肥精颂智能技术有限公司没有看到这种贡献再次出现,那么其他条件相同,我们预计其利润在当前年度会下降。
Our Take On Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd's Profit Performance
我们对合肥精颂智能技术有限公司的利润表现的看法
Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. Considering all this we'd argue Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. When we did our research, we found 3 warning signs for Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd (1 is concerning!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
合肥精颂智能技术有限公司的应计率较弱,但其利润确实受到飞凡项目的提升。考虑到这一切,我们认为合肥精颂智能技术有限公司的利润可能过分给出了其可持续盈利水平的印象。请记住,在分析股票时,值得注意涉及的风险。在我们进行研究时,我们发现有3个警示信号针对合肥精颂智能技术有限公司(其中1个令人担忧!)我们认为这值得您的充分注意。
Our examination of Hefei Jingsong Intelligent TechnologyLtd has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我们对合肥精颂智能技术有限公司的审查着重于能够使其收益看起来比实际更好的某些因素。基于这一点,我们有些持怀疑态度。但如果能够集中注意力关注细微之处,总会有更多发现。有些人认为高净资产收益率是优质企业的良好迹象。虽然这可能需要您进行一些研究,您可能会发现这个收录高净资产收益率公司,或者这个持有大量内部股份的股票列表是有用的。
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