Iceberg Research Posts On X "We Are Short Gevo Inc ($GEVO). The Change in the US Administration Is the Obvious Threat but Problems Run Deeper, in Particular the Competitiveness of Technology. A Lot of Room to Fall Further."
Iceberg Research Posts On X "We Are Short Gevo Inc ($GEVO). The Change in the US Administration Is the Obvious Threat but Problems Run Deeper, in Particular the Competitiveness of Technology. A Lot of Room to Fall Further."
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), whether HEFA or ATJ, are structurally more expensive than traditional jet fuel, and rely heavily on tax credits e.g. IRA and RFS. Generous IRA credits are now threatened and in any case, they expire in 2027.We are short Gevo Inc ($GEVO). The change in the US administration is the obvious threat but problems run deeper, in particular the competitiveness of technology. A lot of room to fall further.
我们对gevo inc（$GEVO）开空。美国政府换届是明显的威胁，但问题更深层，特别是科技的竞争力。还有很大的下跌空间。
In its last days, the Biden-driven Department of Energy has granted conditional approval for a $1.46b loan to Gevo, aimed at building a plant to produce alcohol-to-jet ("ATJ") aviation fuel.
拜登主导的能源部在其最后几天批准了对gevo公司的14.6亿美元贷款，旨在建设一个生产酒精转换为喷气式航空燃料（"ATJ"）的工厂。
Under a Trump-led administration, who called the IRA a "Green New Scam", Gevo's project is one of the most vulnerable DOE conditional approvals. The massive loan is subject to multiple conditions before approval, placing control in the hands of the DOE's new leadership.
在特朗普领导的政府下，称IRA为"绿色新骗局"，gevo公司的项目是美国能源部条件批准中最脆弱的之一。这笔巨额贷款在获批前需满足多个条件，将控制权交给美国能源部的新领导层。
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), whether HEFA or ATJ, are structurally more expensive than traditional jet fuel, and rely heavily on tax credits e.g. IRA and RFS. Generous IRA credits are now threatened and in any case, they expire in 2027.
可持续航空燃料（SAF），无论是HEFA还是ATJ，结构上比传统喷气式燃料更昂贵，且严重依赖税收抵免，例如IRA和RFS。慷慨的IRA抵免现在受到威胁，而且无论如何，它们将于2027年到期。
ATJ (Gevo's type) is also more expensive than HEFA, the most common type of SAF (see above). Bulls argue HEFA will face future feedstock supply constraints (e.g. used oil), hence the need for ATJ.
ATJ（gevo公司的类型）比HEFA更昂贵，后者是最常见的SAF类型（见上文）。多头认为HEFA将面临未来饲料原料供应限制（例如，废油），因此需要ATJ。
The EU has mandated 6% SAF use by 2030, but even when the rule is implemented, current and incoming HEFA production will more than cover demand.
欧盟已下令要在2030年前使用6%的SAF，但即使实施该规定，目前和即将到来的HEFA生产将完全满足需求。
In the US, the DOE believes that HEFA won't cover SAF needs in 2030. But the DOE has assumed SAF would account for 12% (3b gal) of all fuel usage (25b gal) even though SAF adoption will be voluntary in the US, while Europe's 6% is mandatory.
美国能源部认为，到2030年，HEFA无法满足SAF需求。但美国能源部假定SAF将占所有燃料使用量（250亿加仑）的12%（30亿加仑），即使在美国，SAF的采用也将是自愿的，而欧洲的6%却是强制性的。
Hard to believe that US airlines would voluntarily use twice more SAF than their European peers while airline margins are notoriously thin. Assuming 6% usage, in line with the EU in 2030, we found that expected US HEFA capacity (1.7b) will cover SAF needs (1.5b gal).
难以相信美国航空公司会自愿使用比欧洲同行多一倍的SAF，而航空公司利润薄弱。假设使用率为6%，符合欧盟在2030年的标准，我们发现预期的美国HEFA产能（17亿）将满足SAF需求（15亿加仑）。
Worse, the electrification of vehicles will reduce the usage of renewable diesel, which shares the same feedstock as HEFA. This would release HEFA supply in favour of SAF. Another issue is that the EU bans crop-based biofuels like corn. Corn is Gevo's primary feedstock.
更糟糕的是，电动汽车的电气化将减少可再生柴油的使用，后者与HEFA共享相同的原料。这将释放HEFA供应，从而支持SAF。另一个问题是欧盟禁止像玉米这样的基于作物的生物燃料。玉米是gevo inc的主要原料。
The track record of operators is crucial for a project as large as Gevo's ATJ plant. Gevo is known to have a history of under-delivering on promises. In 2019 for example, management unveiled plans to achieve $63-$77m of revenue in 2021. Actual revenue for the year was $0.5m.
运营商的业绩记录对于像gevo inc的ATJ工厂这样的大型项目至关重要。众所周知，gevo inc在兑现承诺方面存在着履约不足的历史。例如，在2019年，管理层公布了2021年实现6300万至7700万美元营业收入的计划。而当年实际营业收入为50万美元。
Since 2013, the company has burnt through $678m of cash, and raised $887m in common equity. Share count has grown about 16x since 2019. Still, top managers received very attractive compensation packages despite this poor performance.
自2013年以来，该公司已经耗费了67800万美元现金，并通过普通股权筹集了88700万美元。自2019年以来，股份增长约16倍。尽管业绩不佳，但高级管理人员依然获得了非常有吸引力的薪酬计划。
We believe the shifting political landscape and the challenging economics of ATJ make Gevo's renewable project highly speculative and prone to failure.
我们认为，政治格局的变化和ATJ项目的挑战性经济环境使gevo inc的可再生能源项目极具投机性，并容易失败。
