Interparfums, Inc. (NASDAQ:IPAR) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.8% to hit US$425m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$1.93, some 4.0% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Interparfums' four analysts is for revenues of US$1.53b in 2025. This reflects a modest 7.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 16% to US$5.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.57b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.88 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$141, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Interparfums' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Interparfums at US$172 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$54.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Interparfums' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Interparfums' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Interparfums. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Interparfums going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Interparfums you should know about.

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