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Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 1,250%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 1,250%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

遗产保险控股公司击败每股收益1250%:分析师认为接下来会发生什么
Simply Wall St ·  11/09 09:50

Shareholders of Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 19% to US$12.20 following its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$212m were what the analysts expected, Heritage Insurance Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.27 per share, an impressive 1,250% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:HRTG)的股东们将在本周感到高兴,因为股价上涨了19%,至12.20美元,创下了最新季度业绩后的新高。总体而言,这看起来是一个可靠的结果——尽管21200万美元的营业收入符合分析师的预期,Heritage Insurance Holdings通过每股0.27美元的(法定)利润交出了一份令人印象深刻的答卷,比预期高出1,250%。盈利对投资者来说是一个重要时刻,他们可以追踪公司的表现,查看分析师对明年的预测,并了解对该公司的情绪是否发生了变化。因此,我们汇总了最新的盈利后法定共识预估,以了解明年可能会发生什么。

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NYSE:HRTG Earnings and Revenue Growth November 9th 2024
2024年11月9日纽约证券交易所(NYSE):HRTG盈利和营业收入增长

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Heritage Insurance Holdings from two analysts is for revenues of US$875.5m in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 19% to US$2.00 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$886.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.28 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

考虑到最新的结果,两位分析师对Heritage Insurance Holdings在2025年的营业收入达到87550万美元达成最新一致意见。如果实现,这将意味着在过去12个月里,其营业收入将增加10%。同期预计法定每股收益将下降19%至2.00美元。在此报告之前,分析师们一直在预测2025年的营业收入达到88640万美元,每股盈利(EPS)为2.28美元。分析师们似乎在最新结果公布后变得更为看淡。虽然营业收入预测没有变化,但对EPS的估计却真实下调了。

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 28% to US$16.00, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term.

尽管削减了他们的盈利预测,分析师们还将目标股价上调28%至16.00美元,表明这些影响不会对股票价值产生长期负面影响。

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Heritage Insurance Holdings'historical trends, as the 8.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 8.4% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that Heritage Insurance Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

当然,观察这些预测的另一种方式是将其与行业本身的情况进行对比。我们可以从最新的估算中推断出,预测希望Heritage Insurance Holdings的历史趋势持续,截至2025年年底的年化营业收入增长率约为8.2%,与过去五年8.4%的年增长大致相当。将此与整个行业进行比较,分析师估计(总体上)预计,行业营业收入将以每年5.3%的速度增长。因此很明显,预测Heritage Insurance Holdings的增长将比其所在行业快得多。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Heritage Insurance Holdings. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

最大的担忧在于分析师降低了每股收益的预测,暗示着遗产保险控股可能面临业务上的风险。令人高兴的是,营业收入预测没有发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。我们注意到了对价格目标的提升,暗示着分析师认为该业务的内在价值可能会随着时间的推移而提高。

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Heritage Insurance Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

考虑到这一点,我们不应该过快得出对遗产保险控股的结论。长期的盈利能力比明年的利润更为重要。至少有一位分析师提供了截至2026年的预测,这些预测可以在我们的平台上免费查看。

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Heritage Insurance Holdings (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

话虽如此,仍然有必要考虑投资风险的永远存在。我们已经确定了遗产保险控股的2个警示信号(至少有1个是不能被忽视的),了解这些信号应该成为您投资过程中的一部分。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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