Shareholders of Synaptics Incorporated (NASDAQ:SYNA) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to US$80.92 following its latest first-quarter results. Revenues of US$258m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.58, some 14% smaller than was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Synaptics after the latest results.

Following the latest results, Synaptics' eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.04b in 2025. This would be a modest 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$2.45 per share in 2025. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.07b and losses of US$1.76 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Synaptics after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

The average price target fell 9.9% to US$94.63, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Synaptics' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Synaptics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$110 and the most bearish at US$80.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Synaptics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 8.6% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.0% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 19% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Synaptics' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Synaptics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Synaptics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Synaptics (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.