Gemdale (SHSE:600383) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 36% If They Invested Five Years Ago
Gemdale (SHSE:600383) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 36% If They Invested Five Years Ago
It is a pleasure to report that the Gemdale Corporation (SHSE:600383) is up 85% in the last quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. After all, the share price is down 47% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.
很高兴报告说,金地集团(SHSE:600383)在上个季度上涨了85%。 但是如果看过去五年,回报并不理想。 毕竟,在那段时间里,股价下跌了47%,明显表现不佳。
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
鉴于此,值得看看该公司的基本面是否一直是长期业绩的驱动因素,或者是否存在一些不一致之处。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
虽然一些人仍然在教授高效市场假说,但已经证明市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者不总是理性的。一种有缺陷但合理的评估公司情绪变化的方法是比较每股收益 (EPS) 与股价。
Over five years Gemdale's earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. The recent extraordinary items contributed to this situation. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But we would generally expect a lower price, given the situation.
在五年的时间里,金地集团的每股收益大幅下降,跌至亏损,并且股价也较低。 最近的非常项目导致了这种情况。 由于公司已经陷入亏损的境地,很难将EPS的变化与股价变化进行比较。 但通常我们会预期价格会更低,鉴于现状。
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
您可以在下面的图片中查看每股收益如何随时间变化(单击图表以查看确切的价值)。
This free interactive report on Gemdale's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
这份免费的互动报告涵盖了金地集团的收益、营业收入和现金流,是进一步调查该股票的好地方。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Gemdale, it has a TSR of -36% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
在考虑投资回报时,重要的是要考虑总股东回报率(TSR)和股价回报之间的区别。TSR是一种回报计算,考虑了现金分红的价值(假设任何获得的股息都得到了再投资)以及任何折现后的股本增发和剥离的计算值。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司,TSR通常比股价回报高得多。就金地集团而言,过去5年其TSR为-36%。这超过了我们之前提到的股价回报。因此,公司支付的股息从而提升了总股东回报。
A Different Perspective
另一种看法
It's good to see that Gemdale has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 14% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 6% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Gemdale (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
很高兴看到金地集团在过去十二个月里以14%的总股东回报回报股东。当然,其中包括了股息。这肯定超过了过去半个世纪每年约6%的损失。长期损失使我们谨慎,但短期TSR的增益确实暗示着更光明的未来。虽然值得考虑市场条件对股价的不同影响,但更重要的是考虑其他因素。例如,投资风险的永恒幽灵。我们已经确认了金地集团的2个警示信号(至少有一个令人担忧),了解它们应该成为您投资过程的一部分。
But note: Gemdale may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
但请注意:金地集团可能不是最佳的股票购买选择。所以不妨浏览一下这个免费的有过往盈利增长(以及未来增长预测)的有趣公司清单。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文中引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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