Despite Westports Holdings Bhd's core profit after tax (PAT) of RM230.9 million for the third quarter financial year of 2024 (3QFY24) represented 76%-77% of both MIDF Investment Bank Bhd's (MIDF Research) and consensus full-year projections, the research house maintained a NEUTRAL call on the port operator with a target price (TP) of RM4.30.
The research house noted that Westports' 3Q performance was marked by contrasting trends across its business segments.
"While gateway volume rose by 8.7% year-on-year (YoY), its transshipment volume experienced a 9.9% YoY decline due to reduced movement of empty containers.
"Notably, container revenue increased by 6.6% YoY, supported by growth in value-added services (VAS), which accounted for 24.6% of the revenue, up from 21.6% in the previous quarter," MIDF Research said in a note.
MIDF Research added that Westports' conventional revenue also demonstrated robust growth of 30.3% YoY, driven by a 22% increase in the break and dry bulk segments.
"Sequentially, its core PAT was also up 13.3% quarter-on-quarter despite a slight 1.1% dip in container volume due to a continued rise in conventional volume and the strong performance of VAS," the research house noted.
Looking ahead, Westports' management expects container volume for FY24 to end flat, reflecting subdued market conditions and shifts in transshipment congestion. This outlook aligned with MIDF Research's projected growth of 1.2% YoY.
"The company forecasts low single-digit growth in FY25, driven by strong gateway volume and a recovery in transshipment traffic, an estimated 3.3% growth," MIDF Research said.
With its discounted cashflow-derived TP of RM4.30, MIDF Research has indicated that Westports' valuation remains close to its five-year historical mean, based on a WACC of 7.2% and a growth rate of 3%.
The stock's key potential upsides include higher-than-expected tariff hikes and an upward revision in container volume forecasts from management.
尽管西港控股有限公司2024财年第三季度的核心税后利润（PAT）为23090万令吉（3QFY24）占MIDF投资银行有限公司（MIDF Research）和全年共识预测的76％-77％，但该研究机构维持对港口运营商的中立看法，目标价格（TP）为4.30令吉。
该研究机构指出，Westports第三季度的业绩以各业务板块的趋势形成鲜明对比。
“虽然网关量同比增长8.7％，但由于空集装箱的流动减少，其转运量同比下降了9.9％。
MIDF Research在一份报告中表示：“值得注意的是，集装箱收入同比增长6.6％，这得益于增值服务（VAS）的增长，占收入的24.6％，高于上一季度的21.6％。”
MIDF Research补充说，受散装和干散货板块增长22％的推动，Westports的常规收入也显示出同比30.3％的强劲增长。
该研究机构指出：“尽管由于常规货运量的持续增长和VAS的强劲表现，集装箱容量略有下降1.1％，但其核心PaT同比增长了13.3％。”
展望未来，Westports的管理层预计，24财年的集装箱量将持平，这反映了疲软的市场状况和转运拥堵的转变。这一前景与MIDF Research预计的同比增长1.2％一致。
MIDF Research表示：“该公司预测，受强劲的门户量和转运量恢复的推动，25财年将出现低的个位数增长，估计增长3.3％。”
MIDF Research的折扣现金流衍生目标为4.30令吉，根据7.2％的WACC和3％的增长率，西港的估值仍接近其五年历史平均值。
该股的主要潜在上涨空间包括高于预期的关税上调以及管理层向上修订集装箱容量预测。
