Westports 3Q24 core net profit of RM228m was 12% higher qoq (+17% yoy) due to stronger operating performance and lower amortisation expense of the port infrastructure and concession assets given the extension of the port concession to 2070F (2054F previously) effective 1 Sep 2024.
Lower amortisation led to lower qoq port operating costs in 3Q24 but Westports also enjoyed reduced electricity tariffs and fuel costs as the market price of diesel fell (diesel is used by its port tractors and rubber-tyre gantry cranes). This helped lift port EBIT by 11% qoq since overall container port revenue in 3Q24 actually did not see significant uplift. Container port revenue rose just 1.2% qoq in 3Q24 as a sharp 5% qoq rise in gateway volumes was partially offset by a 5.2% qoq drop in transhipment (t/s) volumes as Zim (not rated, US$24.77) has not been permitted to call on ports in Malaysia since Dec
CGS said fortunately, Value Added Services (VAS) revenues rose qoq due to the yard congestion seen in 2Q24 and which extended into 3Q24; this lifted unit container revenue by 2% qoq, also assisted by the rising mix of gateway volumes. In summary, Westports delivered another good quarter due to the resilience of its container port business, which continues to benefit from the relocation of Chinese factories to the Klang Valley as a means of diversifying risk exposure to current and potential future US tariffs on Chinese exports.
Two major events could have implications for Westports next year
Westports guided for muted growth for 2025F container volumes; it is hoping for a small yoy growth in t/s volumes with the Zim effect moving into the background (we pencil in 2% growth, from -6% in 2024F) while gateway volumes should continue to grow (we factor in +6% yoy, from +10% in 2024F and +14% in 2023). Overall, CGS said it is expecting total container
volume to grow 3.8% in 2025F vs. +0.7% in 2024F. On the other hand, it is also assuming a normalisation in VAS revenues in 2025F as Westports's yard is currently decongesting.
A key risk is if US president-elect Trump raises tariffs on imports from China to 60% and on imports from other countries to 10-20%. The upside risk is for trade volumes to jump ahead of the higher tariffs but the longer-term implications are uncertain. Will higher tariffs on Chinese exports accelerate the 'China+1' strategy that has so far benefitted Malaysia or, in a downside risk scenario, will these tariffs crimp US buying power such that overall global trade growth is impacted negatively?
Separately, to fund th expansion of Westports, we expect the government to permit Westports to raise port tariffs next year,
although the timing and quantum have not been disclosed. We have pencilled in a 15% hike from 1 Sep 2025F and we have a Hold recommendation until the details are available.
鉴于港口特许权自2024年9月1日起延长至2070华氏度（此前为2054华氏度），Westports24第三季度核心净利润为22800万令吉，同比增长12％（同比增长17％），这要归因于运营业绩强劲以及港口基础设施和特许权资产的摊销费用降低。
摊销额减少导致24年第三季度港口运营成本降低，但随着柴油市场价格的下跌（其港口拖拉机和橡胶轮胎龙门起重机使用柴油），Westports也降低了电费和燃料成本。这使港口息税前利润环比增长了11％，因为24年第三季度集装箱港口的整体收入实际上并未出现显著增长。集装箱港口收入在24年第三季度仅增长了1.2％，这是由于自12月以来一直不允许Zim（未评级，24.77美元）停靠马来西亚港口，转运量（t/s）同比下降5.2％，部分抵消了网关量同比增长5％
CGS表示，幸运的是，增值服务（VAS）收入环比增长，这要归因于24年第二季度出现船厂拥堵，一直持续到24年第三季度；这也得益于网关量组合的增加，使单位集装箱收入环比增长了2％。总而言之，由于其集装箱港口业务的弹性，Westports又实现了良好的季度业绩。中国工厂迁至巴生谷继续受益，这是分散美国当前和未来对中国出口关税的风险敞口的一种手段。
明年有两起重大事件可能会对西港产生影响
Westports预计2025F集装箱量将保持低速增长；它希望在Zim效应进入背景的情况下，t/s的销量同比小幅增长（我们预计增长2％，高于2024财年的-6％），而网关量应继续增长（我们考虑同比增长6％，高于2024财年的+10％和2023年的+14％）。总体而言，CGS表示，预计集装箱总量
2025财年的销量将增长3.8％，而2024财年的增长率为0.7％。另一方面，它还假设增值税收入将在2025财年恢复正常，因为Westports的船厂目前正在缓解拥挤状况。
一个关键风险是，如果美国当选总统特朗普将从中国进口的关税提高到60％，将从其他国家进口的关税提高到10-20％。上行风险是，在更高的关税之前，贸易量会激增，但长期影响尚不确定。对中国出口商品征收更高的关税会加速迄今为止使马来西亚受益的 “中国+1” 战略，还是在下行风险情景中，这些关税是否会抑制美国的购买力，从而使全球整体贸易增长受到负面影响？
另外，为了为Westports的扩张提供资金，我们预计政府将允许Westports明年提高港口费率，
尽管时间和量子尚未透露。我们计划从2025年9月1日起加息 15%，我们建议在细节出来之前暂缓加息。
