With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.5x D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 20x and even P/E's higher than 36x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
D.R. Horton certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings performance might be less impressive moving forward. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on D.R. Horton.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like D.R. Horton's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 3.6% gain to the company's bottom line. EPS has also lifted 27% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 8.6% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which is not materially different.
In light of this, it's peculiar that D.R. Horton's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.
What We Can Learn From D.R. Horton's P/E?
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of D.R. Horton's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.
A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for D.R. Horton with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
You might be able to find a better investment than D.R. Horton. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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