If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. In light of that, from a first glance at Genesco (NYSE:GCO), we've spotted some signs that it could be struggling, so let's investigate.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Genesco, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.008 = US$7.9m ÷ (US$1.4b - US$396m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to August 2024).

So, Genesco has an ROCE of 0.8%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Specialty Retail industry average of 12%.

In the above chart we have measured Genesco's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Genesco for free.

What Does the ROCE Trend For Genesco Tell Us?

The trend of returns that Genesco is generating are raising some concerns. The company used to generate 6.8% on its capital five years ago but it has since fallen noticeably. On top of that, the business is utilizing 27% less capital within its operations. When you see both ROCE and capital employed diminishing, it can often be a sign of a mature and shrinking business that might be in structural decline. If these underlying trends continue, we wouldn't be too optimistic going forward.

The Bottom Line On Genesco's ROCE

In short, lower returns and decreasing amounts capital employed in the business doesn't fill us with confidence. Investors haven't taken kindly to these developments, since the stock has declined 26% from where it was five years ago. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

If you're still interested in Genesco it's worth checking out our FREE intrinsic value approximation for GCO to see if it's trading at an attractive price in other respects.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.