Investing in Orient Securities (SHSE:600958) a Year Ago Would Have Delivered You a 25% Gain
Investing in Orient Securities (SHSE:600958) a Year Ago Would Have Delivered You a 25% Gain
If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the Orient Securities Company Limited (SHSE:600958) share price is up 23% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 10% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! Zooming out, the stock is actually down 19% in the last three years.
如果您想在股市中复利积累财富,可以通过购买指数基金来实现。但通过选择表现优于平均水平的股票(作为多元化投资组合的一部分),您可以做得更好。例如,东方证券有限公司(SHSE:600958)的股价在过去一年上涨了23%,明显超过了大约10%的市场回报(不包括分红派息)。这在我们的标准下是一个稳健的表现!从长远来看,过去三年该股票实际上下跌了19%。
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
现在值得更详细地了解该公司的基本面,因为这将帮助我们判断长期股东回报是否与基础业务的表现相匹配。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
虽然有效市场假说仍然被一些人教授,但被证明市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。检查市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是看一个公司的股价与其每股收益(EPS)之间的交互作用。
Over the last twelve months, Orient Securities actually shrank its EPS by 19%.
在过去的十二个月中,东方证券的每股收益实际上下降了19%。
So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
因此,我们认为投资者并没有过多关注每股收益。由于每股收益的变化似乎与股价的变化没有关系,所以值得关注其他指标。
We are skeptical of the suggestion that the 1.4% dividend yield would entice buyers to the stock. Orient Securities' revenue actually dropped 14% over last year. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.
我们对1.4%的分红派息收益率能够吸引买入股票的说法持怀疑态度。 东方证券的营业收入实际上比去年下降了14%。 因此,基本面指标并没有明显解释股价的上涨。
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
您可以看到以下收益和营收的变化情况(通过单击图像了解精确值)。
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
资产负债表实力非常重要。查看我们关于其财务状况如何随时间变化的免费报告可能非常值得。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Orient Securities the TSR over the last 1 year was 25%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
在考虑投资回报时,重要的是考虑总股东回报(TSR)和股价回报之间的差异。 股价回报仅反映股价的变化,而TSR包括分红的价值(假设已再投资)以及任何折扣融资或分拆的益处。 可以合理地说,TSR为支付分红的股票提供了更全面的图景。 我们注意到,东方证券在过去一年中的TSR为25%,这超过了上述的股价回报。 而且,分红派息基本上解释了这两者之间的差异,这一点也不难猜!
A Different Perspective
另一种看法
It's good to see that Orient Securities has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 25% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Orient Securities .
看到东方证券在过去十二个月里给股东带来了25%的总股东回报真不错。这包括分红派息。这比过去五年的年化回报5%要好,暗示公司最近的表现更佳。考虑到股价动量依然强劲,或许值得对这只股票进行更仔细的观察,以免错失机会。虽然考虑市场条件对股价的不同影响非常重要,但还有其他因素更为关键。因此,您应该注意到我们发现的东方证券的2个警示信号。
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
对于那些喜欢寻找获胜投资的人来说,最近有内部购买的低估公司免费列表可能是一个很好的选择。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文中引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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