Despite the Downward Trend in Earnings at Graham Holdings (NYSE:GHC) the Stock Soars 10%, Bringing Three-year Gains to 63%
Despite the Downward Trend in Earnings at Graham Holdings (NYSE:GHC) the Stock Soars 10%, Bringing Three-year Gains to 63%
By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Graham Holdings Company (NYSE:GHC) share price is up 58% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 15% (not including dividends).
通过购买指数基金,您可以轻松地大致与市场回报相匹配。但如果您选择合适的个别股票,您可能会赚得更多。例如,格雷厄姆控股公司(纽交所:GHC)股价在过去三年中上涨了58%,明显超过市场回报约15%(不包括股息)。
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
在稳定的七天表现之后,让我们看看公司的基本面对长期股东回报的影响。
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
不可否认的是,市场有时是高效的,但价格并不总是反映潜在的商业表现。一个不完美但简单的方法来考虑公司市场感知如何改变是比较每股收益(EPS)变化和股价变动。
Over the last three years, Graham Holdings failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 20% (annualized).
在过去三年中,格雷厄姆控股公司未能增长每股收益,每股收益下降了20%(年化)。
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
这意味着市场不太可能根据收益增长来评估公司。由于EPS的变化似乎不与股价的变化相关,因此值得关注其他指标。
Languishing at just 0.7%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. It could be that the revenue growth of 14% per year is viewed as evidence that Graham Holdings is growing. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.
股息仅为0.7%,我们怀疑这对支撑股价起到了什么作用。也许每年14%的营业收入增长被视为格雷厄姆控股正在增长的证据。如果公司正在为长远利益而管理,今天的股东可能是正确的。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
以下图片显示了收益和营收随时间的变化(如果你点击图片,可以看到更详细的信息)。
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Graham Holdings stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
我们认为内部人士在过去一年中进行了重大购买是积极的。话虽如此,大多数人认为盈利和营收增长趋势更有意义作为业务的指南。如果您考虑购买或出售格雷厄姆控股股票,应查阅此免费报告,显示分析师的利润预测。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Graham Holdings, it has a TSR of 63% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
在考虑投资回报时,重要的是要考虑总股东回报率(TSR)和股价回报之间的差异。而股价回报仅反映了股价变化,TSR包括了股息的价值(假设它们已被再投资)以及任何资本筹集或分拆带来的好处。可以说TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的画面。就格雷厄姆控股而言,过去3年的TSR为63%。这超过了我们之前提到的股价回报。公司支付的股息因此提升了总股东回报。
A Different Perspective
另一种看法
We're pleased to report that Graham Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 50% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 9% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Graham Holdings (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
我们很高兴地报告,格雷厄姆控股的股东在一年内获得了50%的总股东回报。这也包括了分红派息。这比过去半个世纪的年化回报率9%要好,暗示公司最近的表现更好。在最好的情况下,这可能暗示着一些真正的业务势头,表明现在可能是深入了解更多的好时机。我觉得长期观察股价作为业务绩效的替代是非常有趣的。但要真正获得见解,我们也需要考虑其他信息。比如,要考虑投资风险的影响。我们已经确认了格雷厄姆控股存在2个警示信号(至少有1个令人担忧),了解它们应该是投资过程的一部分。
Graham Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
格雷厄姆控股并不是唯一一家内部人正在买入的股票。对于那些喜欢发现不太为人知的公司的人们,这份包含最新内部人购买动态的成长公司免费名单可能正合适。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
请注意,本文所引述的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章是一般性质的。我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,使用公正的方法,我们的文章并非意在提供财务建议。这并不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,并且不考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您带来基于基础数据驱动的长期聚焦分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St对提及的任何股票都没有持仓。