It's been a good week for InnoCare Pharma Limited (HKG:9969) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.5% to HK$7.04. Revenues were CN¥278m, with InnoCare Pharma reporting some 3.5% below analyst expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering InnoCare Pharma are now predicting revenues of CN¥1.34b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 50% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching CN¥0.31 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥1.34b and losses of CN¥0.34 per share in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for next year.

The average price target held steady at HK$9.23, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values InnoCare Pharma at HK$13.47 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$5.81. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of InnoCare Pharma'shistorical trends, as the 38% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 38% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 29% annually. So it's pretty clear that InnoCare Pharma is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$9.23, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for InnoCare Pharma going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - InnoCare Pharma has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.